16/02/2024
Substantial increase in subscriber base sets base for growth
Cybersecurity in the spotlight. Against the backdrop of the constant threat of cyberattacks, as demonstrated by the recent examples of Varta AG and PSI Software AG, this should once again put the spotlight on the importance of cybersecurity. It is very fitting that cyan announced today that the number of end customers for its cybersecurity products increased by 71% yoy in 2023. The company had several product launches in H2 2022 and FY23, which had been in a customer ramp up. Another promising market launch in Belgium (Orange) is expected for H1 2024.
cyan in transformation. At the end of 2023, cyan sold its BSS/OSS business (i-new) to the Compax Group, an Austrian provider of business support systems (BSS) and mobile virtual network operators (MVNO) solutions. Under the leadership of the new CEO Thomas Kicker, who has extensive experience in the telecoms sector, the company is now fully focused on cybersecurity. While the detailed plan has yet to be presented, the basic steps have already been roughly outlined:
launch of new products,
tap into new customer segments (i.e. banking, insurance) through strategic partnerships,
reduce complexity within the Group, simplify internal processes -> reduced cost structure.
Conclusion. After the successful sale of the BSS/OSS business, as well as the past capital increase and convertible bond issuance, the company should be in a comfortable financial position with sufficient leeway for implementing the new CEO’s updated strategy. This being said, the update of our model is still pending. The impact of the i-new sale on the income statement and balance sheet still needs to be specified. However, our initial assumptions indicate that around 2/3 of the cost block is likely to be eliminated. Ultimately, this should have a significant impact on future margin estimates. As a pure cybersecurity business, higher multiples are also expected from the peer valuation. For the time being, we are leaving our estimates unchanged. We continue to expect a re-rating of the shares once the market is provided with more substance on the strategy and outlook. Our price target of EUR 3.20 and BUY rating remain unchanged.