Weil ich in Urlaubsstimmung bin, werde ich an euch einen Newsletter
weiterleiten.
Dateline: 11:45 pm eastern time, 10/17/2002
The market gapped higher on Thursday morning and put in the
day's highs within the first 10 minutes of trading. We came
in looking to sell the gap higher, and the market made a
nice move lower in the first 30 minutes.
Nevertheless, the bulls were able to make the gap stand up
all day long, and when the market closed they had another
big day of across the board gains. The Dow gained 239
points, while the SP500 picked up 19. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq
composite gained 40 and the Nasdaq 100 closed 35 points
higher.
Friday is options expiration, and if you have been with us
for any length of time you know that these are not our
favorite trading days. There are always plenty of extra
cross currents in the market that really muddy the picture.
We like to either stand aside on these days. If we do trade,
we are VERY selective in our trades.
The futures are higher on Globex as we are preparing this
update, so it looks like we are heading for yet another gap
open. The general rule is that the vast majority of gaps end
up getting filled... but as of late the market has been
leaving all kinds of unfilled gaps. This will not go on
forever.
The oversold conditions from a couple of days ago have
mostly been erased, and the RBI Sell Gate is now closed.
However, there *ARE* some very subtle bearish divergences up
here. With the SP500 closing within a couple of points of
Tuesday's close, most of our end of day internals indicators
are at slightly lower readings than they were on Tuesday.
This is a very subtle divergence, but you can also see it in
the breadth on each of the last three big rally days... the
breadth has been good on all three days, but it has gotten
progressively weaker on each day.
One thing that is in play right now are the 60 period
exponential moving averages on Dow, SP500, NYSE composite,
and the Nasdaq composite. These moving averages have pretty
much defined the upper ends of the rallies since May, and we
are testing them right now on all of those indexes.
We have CPI data before the open on Friday, so that could
change things quite a bit... but if the current Globex
numbers hold up the market would open near the Thursday
highs. If the market does gap higher in the morning, we will
need to see good breadth (like Thursday's 2-1 closing
breadth) if the bulls are going to have a shot of making
*this* gap stick. That, and getting over and holding 889.00-
891.00 on the SP futures, would be bullish for a move to
check out 900. Otherwise, there is some backing and filling
to be done, at a minimum.
That 889.00-891.00 is last key resistance zone we see on the
SP futures right now, and it should line up with the 963-966
area on the Nasdaq. If we get above those zones, the we will
be watching 900.00-902.50 on the SP futures and then 910.00-
912.50. On the Nasdaq we have further resistance at 981-984
and then 999-1002.
If the market gaps up, we will be watching for support at
883-882 on the SP futures and 957 on the Nasdaq futures.
Below that, 879-877 on the SP futures and the 948-944 area
on the Nasdaq futures should prove to be pretty sticky
levels for the bears to get through. Just below there are
the Thursday lows at 875 and 940. If we go through those
levels, we are into the gap left on Thursday morning. Those
gaps are not the cleanest we have ever seen, but we will be
watching for support in the 867-864 and 930-923 zones.
December 2002 SP futures resistance
889.00-891.00
900.00-902.50
910.00-912.50
December 2002 SP futures support
883-882
879-877
875
867-864
December 2002 Nasdaq futures resistance
963-966
981-984
999-1002
December 2002 Nasdaq futures support
957
948-944
940
930-923
Ich hoffe es hilft euch weiter :-)
PS:Die Interpretation liegt wohl auf der Hand, oder ? ;-)
weiterleiten.
Dateline: 11:45 pm eastern time, 10/17/2002
The market gapped higher on Thursday morning and put in the
day's highs within the first 10 minutes of trading. We came
in looking to sell the gap higher, and the market made a
nice move lower in the first 30 minutes.
Nevertheless, the bulls were able to make the gap stand up
all day long, and when the market closed they had another
big day of across the board gains. The Dow gained 239
points, while the SP500 picked up 19. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq
composite gained 40 and the Nasdaq 100 closed 35 points
higher.
Friday is options expiration, and if you have been with us
for any length of time you know that these are not our
favorite trading days. There are always plenty of extra
cross currents in the market that really muddy the picture.
We like to either stand aside on these days. If we do trade,
we are VERY selective in our trades.
The futures are higher on Globex as we are preparing this
update, so it looks like we are heading for yet another gap
open. The general rule is that the vast majority of gaps end
up getting filled... but as of late the market has been
leaving all kinds of unfilled gaps. This will not go on
forever.
The oversold conditions from a couple of days ago have
mostly been erased, and the RBI Sell Gate is now closed.
However, there *ARE* some very subtle bearish divergences up
here. With the SP500 closing within a couple of points of
Tuesday's close, most of our end of day internals indicators
are at slightly lower readings than they were on Tuesday.
This is a very subtle divergence, but you can also see it in
the breadth on each of the last three big rally days... the
breadth has been good on all three days, but it has gotten
progressively weaker on each day.
One thing that is in play right now are the 60 period
exponential moving averages on Dow, SP500, NYSE composite,
and the Nasdaq composite. These moving averages have pretty
much defined the upper ends of the rallies since May, and we
are testing them right now on all of those indexes.
We have CPI data before the open on Friday, so that could
change things quite a bit... but if the current Globex
numbers hold up the market would open near the Thursday
highs. If the market does gap higher in the morning, we will
need to see good breadth (like Thursday's 2-1 closing
breadth) if the bulls are going to have a shot of making
*this* gap stick. That, and getting over and holding 889.00-
891.00 on the SP futures, would be bullish for a move to
check out 900. Otherwise, there is some backing and filling
to be done, at a minimum.
That 889.00-891.00 is last key resistance zone we see on the
SP futures right now, and it should line up with the 963-966
area on the Nasdaq. If we get above those zones, the we will
be watching 900.00-902.50 on the SP futures and then 910.00-
912.50. On the Nasdaq we have further resistance at 981-984
and then 999-1002.
If the market gaps up, we will be watching for support at
883-882 on the SP futures and 957 on the Nasdaq futures.
Below that, 879-877 on the SP futures and the 948-944 area
on the Nasdaq futures should prove to be pretty sticky
levels for the bears to get through. Just below there are
the Thursday lows at 875 and 940. If we go through those
levels, we are into the gap left on Thursday morning. Those
gaps are not the cleanest we have ever seen, but we will be
watching for support in the 867-864 and 930-923 zones.
December 2002 SP futures resistance
889.00-891.00
900.00-902.50
910.00-912.50
December 2002 SP futures support
883-882
879-877
875
867-864
December 2002 Nasdaq futures resistance
963-966
981-984
999-1002
December 2002 Nasdaq futures support
957
948-944
940
930-923
Ich hoffe es hilft euch weiter :-)
PS:Die Interpretation liegt wohl auf der Hand, oder ? ;-)
