A 'silver tsunami' won't solve housing affordability challenges

SEATTLE, Dec. 5, 2024

• There is an oversupply of 12.8 million empty-nest homes.
• However, this potential supply is not located in the markets experiencing severe housing shortages.
• Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit and New Orleans have the largest share of empty nest homes.
• The highest share of those homes are in Las Vegas, Austin, Los Angeles and Riverside.

SEATTLE, Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A "silver tsunami" — an expected flood of homes from older owners who will downsize or otherwise move on — has long been discussed as having the potential to relieve the nation's shortage of housing. But new research from Zillow® shows these homes likely are located far from where they're needed most. 

"Even if we did see a 'silver tsunami,' a look at the map tells me it wouldn't really move the needle in terms of solving our housing affordability crunch," said Orphe Divounguy, Zillow senior economist. "These empty-nest households are concentrated in more affordable markets, where housing is already more accessible — not in the expensive coastal job centers where young workers are moving and where more homes are most desperately needed."

In 2022, there were roughly 20.9 million empty-nest households nationwide — residents ages 55 or older who have lived in the same home for 10 or more years, have no children at home and have at least two extra bedrooms. That's compared to the 8.1 million families living with nonrelatives in 2022 that were likely in need of their own place. But the supply and the demand don't match up on the map. 

Empty-nest households are not where most young workers choose to live

Empty-nest households tend to be in markets that are less expensive. Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, Pittsburgh had the highest share of empty-nest households at 22%, followed by Buffalo (20%), Cleveland (20%), Detroit (19%), St. Louis (19%) and New Orleans (18%). These markets are already accessible — all but New Orleans are among the top 10 markets with homes on the market that are affordable. They also have relatively low shares of heads of households younger than age 44.