ingleQ1 sales increased by 4.9% to € 107m (eNuW: 104m), which was predominantly driven by advertising (+16% to € 39.2m; eNuW: € 34.1m) as well as TV Marketing (+4% to € 39.2m; eNuW: € 38.6m). Moreover, sales from match operations increased by 5% to € 8.1m, in line with our estimates, while conference, catering and others was significantly ahead of our forecast with € 14.1m (eNuW: € 10.8m). On the other hand, merchandising sales declined in Q1 by 36% to € 10.0m (eNuW: € 12.4m), after the strong previous year's quarter was mainly boosted by the sale of 90k special jerseys.
Despite the increased top-line, Q1 EBITDA declined to € 25.7m (eNuW: € 32.0m), implying a margin of 24.0%. The previous year’s EBITDA of 79.4m was mainly pushed by a stronger transfer income following the transfer of Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid (€ 103m fee). This summer, only Niclas Füllkrug’s transfer to West Ham (eNuW: € 27m) was of significance, which is explaining the gap, as transfer income declined by 77% to € 19.3m.
With its FY ‘23/24 report, management also put out a new guidance, targeting sales of € 503m (eNuWnew: € 502m), an EBITDA of € 110-120m (eNuW: € 120m) and a FCF of € 21m (eNuW: € 20.4m).
On the sporting side, BVB had a rough start into the new Bundesliga season. Although the club won every single home game, including an important win against UCL side Leipzig, the team did not manage to win an away game so far resulting in only 16 points and 7th place in the standings. If the team does not overcome its weakness on the road, it could become difficult to qualify for the UCL at the end of the season. In contrast to this, BVB is again looking sharp in this years UCL campaign, having won 3 out of 4 games with the only loss coming from the away game at Real Madrid. With four games to go, the team is now in a very good position to gain a Top-8 spot, which would guarantee qualification for the round of 16. According to sports data provider opta, 17 points are sufficient in 100% of cases (50k simulations), while 16 points is enough in 98% and 15 points in 73% of cases. The necessary 7 points to get to 16 should be achievable given remaining opponents like Zagreb (A), Barcelona (H), Bologna (A) and Donetsk (H).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
