Aixtron purpose of this thread

Bei Interesse: www.welt.de/regionales/nrw/...bieter-fuer-Spezialanlagen.html

In meiner Funktion als Link-Poster nachfolgend noch mal ein interessanter und ein weniger interessanter Artikel :-)

“Apple’s miniLED plans: 30-40% of iPads and 20-30% of MacBooks next year – Kuo”

9to5mac.com/2020/09/21/apples-miniled-plans/


„Aixtron: Ruhe vor dem Sturm - wann startet der nächste Anlauf?“

www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/...naechste-anlauf--20207388.html

-bought "multiple" G5+ for 8 inch GaN-on-Si in Nov. 2018. Its web site says it has "several" MOCVD's
-completed the GaN-on-Si plant construction and started the move-in of equipment on 9/19/20
-starting manufacturing by the end of the year
-phase 1 investment 6B Yuan
-full capacity targeting monthly 65,000 8 inch GaN-on-Si

note: a G5 loads five 8 inch wafers per run

www.eet-china.com/kj/1600525853.html

www.4kfilme.de/...ich-unbeeindruckt-von-den-qd-oled-displays/


Samsung Electronics zeigt sich unbeeindruckt von den QD-OLED-Displays

China's 14th 5-year (145) plan for the 2021-2025 period will invest trillions in 3-rd generation semiconductors.  Given the geopolitical situation, ordering equipment from non-US suppliers should be urgent and is likely happening now, IMHO.  

Hey Cwl,

Given that Chinese demand has been pretty strong over the last 1-2 Years already at Aixtron (I think ca 70% of sales to Asia but would need to check the exact number), Do you think this plan unleashes incremental demand or rather continued demand on these high levels ?

Regards!
Fel

There are multiple new fabs. on GaN and SiC coming.  They typically order a few to start the initial production.  With the government subsidies, they should expand more aggressively.

Regards,
CWL

When you mention new fabs: www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2020/09/...on-schedule.html

VCSEL revenue to grow 53% to US$1.8bn in 2021, driven by integration of 3D sensing and 5G:

www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/...ndforce-030920.shtml

CWL, thanks for the above link – quite impressive growth number of >50% for 2021! How come that Aixtron still has a somewhat muted view on VCSEL for the time being? In the last CC Bernd Schulte was talking about no “indication for a fast need of capacity” (see full answer below, only admitting that “this can change overnight”. I.e. I don’t fully understand why >50% growth is expected but there are still no signs of additional orders at Aixtron – in particular when taking into account that the new premium iPhone is supposed to have a world-facing 3D feature.

Any educated guesstimate from your perspective on the potential lead-time of these orders, i.e. when would orders need to be placed with Aixtron to accommodate this anticipated 2021 growth?

**************

“Bernd Schulte, President & Member of the Executive Board:
David, on the 3D sensing, it is basically still in the situation that there is capacity for, let's say, the ongoing products, which are in the market. And for the markets, the existing capacity is enough, and it requires really an uptick in additional capacity requirements coming from end applications, meaning more cell phones, more high-volume cell phones are using on the face and world side 3D sensing applications. Because that's what's driving the short-term demand in 3D sensing. Nevertheless, we are very optimistic about the long-term demand in 3D sensing, looking in industrial, looking in automotive applications.

But this is more in the long term, but in the very short term, we're selling  3D sensing tools here and there. And it's basically mostly to customers in China or Taiwan, the -- basically, the established supplier into the supply chain of iPhones. They -- in the moment, they don't give us indication for a
fast need of capacity. However, from the past, I remember well, this can change overnight, yes? So this is -- because it doesn't require any development, nothing. You just place an order and (inaudible) delivered as fast as possible.”

(Source: I listened to the call and wrote it down, i.e. don’t claim this to be 100% correct)

Hi Dlg,

Meine Meinung von Aixtron zu VCSEL Ist nicht ganz so wie deine, auch sie werden in 2021 wieder von VCSEL profitieren.
1. meine ich mich zu erinnern, dass Aix für H1-21 wieder VCSEL Orders erwartet. Ursprünglich hatte man für 2020 schon auf Orders gehofft, die kamen dann aber nicht, Grund war die geringe Kapazitätsauslastung bei den Zulieferern. Erinnere auch, dass IQE ein größerer VCSEL Kunde war/ist und die haben nach ihrem Kapazitätsausbau der letzten Jahre zzt erstmal kein Budget.
2. verstehe ich das Vorgehen von Apple bezgl zu seinen suppliern so, dass Apple VOR Project Award von seinen potentiellen Lieferanten erwartet, dass sie Kapazitäten aufbauen. Also bauen 2-3 player viel Kapazität auf, dann bekommt aber nur 1-2 den Zuschlag. Sprich du hast zu Beginn erstmal viel freie Kapazität im Markt, die sich dann (bei Produkterfolg) Stück für Stück füllt und erst wenn andere Player die Technik übernehmen braucht die Branche neue Kapazität (und somit Aix Maschinen).
Das klingt mir vor der Entwicklung der VCSEL Orders sehr plausibel und würde dafür sprechen, dass die 1. VCSEL Welle für Aix In 2018/19 abgeschlossen war und jetzt über die nächsten Jahre ggf eine 2. (wahrscheinlich etwas kleinere) Welle anstehen wird.

Zualledem muss man auch die Effizienzgewinne Berücksichtigen: nach x runs kann der Kunde auf den Maschinen mehr VCSEL produzieren als beim 1. oder 2. ein, somit steigt der Output und ich die Auslastung sinkt für eine Zeit automatisch.

Soweit zumindest meine Einschätzung als Technik laie.

Viele Grüße!
Fel  

Hi Dlg,

In addition, iPhone 12 is to be announced in October.  Its new 3d-sensng functionalities on the world-facing side could trigger a new wave as Fel has suggested.  Apple and the others are waiting to see.  TrendForce counted it in.  Schulte hinted that.  From the July/20 CC:

Dr. Bernd Schulte:

"...In the moment, the established suppliers in the iPhone supply chain are not giving us an indication for fast need of capacity. However, from the past, I remember well, this can change overnight. So, this is because these tools do not require any development anymore. You just place an order now it's going to be delivered as fast as possible...'

fel/CWL many thanks for your feedback, much appreciated! Please don’t get me wrong, in my previous posting I did not mean to say that I am negative on the VCSEL/3D opportunity. I was just confused how the timing works – as mentioned, I would have expected increased orders already in 2020 if the VCSEL growth assumption is >50% for next year. But that was well explained by both of you.

If this is rather a 2021 story, be my guest! A year where all factors come into play at once - VCSEL, miniLED, SiC and potentially news on OVPD - sounds like kind of a blue sky scenario.

Different topic: it now seems that there will be three suppliers to Apple’s miniLED, i.e. Epistar, Sanan and now Osram Opto. While Epistar & Sanan are confirmed Aixtron clients (though not sure whether for this product), does anybody know whether Osram Opto is a client as well? At least they are not listed under references on Aixtron’s homepage.

9to5mac.com/2020/09/29/ipad-pro-with-miniled/

Hi Dlg,

I think (but cannot proof!) that Osram is traditionally a VEECO client.  But 2 out of 3 is good market share ;)

Regards,
fel

Fear that I can proof the above: ir.veeco.com/news-and-events/news-details/...ems/default.aspx

But agree, 2 out of 3 is still acceptable :-).  

also has Aixtron's G4 and G5.

www.aixtron.com/en/investors/news/...%20LED%20production_n205

www.aixtron.com/en/press/press-releases/...4-TM%20system_n200

Win, a key supplier for Apple, expanded capacity with 5000 monthly epi wafers in July.  IQE needs to follow hopefully.  IQE had only 1.1m capex in H1 but allocated up to 10m cpaex for 2020.

Win Semi continues to enjoy robust 5G PA, VCSEL demand
Julian Ho, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES Tuesday 29 September 2020 0

GaAs foundry Win Semiconductors continues to enjoy a strong influx of orders for 5G PA and VCSEL components with clear order visibility through the fourth quarter, despite no orders from Huawei, according to industry sources.

Win Semi has maintained high capacity utilization even after increasing monthly capacity by 5,000 epi wafers in July, thanks mainly to continued rises in demand for 5G PA components, particularly from the handset segment, the sources said, adding that handsets will gradually replace base stations as main outlets for 5G PA devices in 2020-2021.

The company has seen revenues from the 5G segment rise to 20-25% of its PA business so far this year, and the ratio is expected to expand further in 2021 as the 5G handset penetration is likely to grow to 30-40%.

Besides processing VCSEL devices for 3D face ID sensors adopted in existing iPhones, Win Semi is expected to continue offering such components for rearend ToF LiDAR modules reportedly to be adopted in two new iPhones to be released later this year, the sources noted. Demand for VCSEL chips is expected to be robust in 2021 after non-Apple handset vendors follow suit to incorporate ToF LiDAR modules into their new models, the sources added.

Win Semi declined to comment on specific clients or orders, but stressed that it is optimistic about seeing meaningful revenue growth in 2020.

is planning to invest $3.5B to build a new plant starting 2021 that will more than twice of  its current capacity.

money.udn.com/money/story/5612/4918681

I saw that Samsung released results last night, did anybody look at them? Anything of interest for Aixtron with regards to Capex, OLED/QD OLED or so?

I also noted very strong Dialog Semi Q3 sales and encouraging Q4 Guidance this week but don’t think there was anything Aixtron related in there..

Aixtron Q3 results and conf call are not too far away either!

Regards,
Fel  

Abend zusammen =),

interessant finde ich bei Samsung, dass die Zahlen (Umsätze, Gewinne) in den letzten Jahren rückläufig sind. Wobei Samsung immer noch unglaubliche Margen und eine sehr starke Eigenkapitalausstattung besitzt. Ich habe Samsung auch einmal in einem kompakten Video mit XIAOMI verglichen, da sie es ja in sehr schneller Zeit zu ganzen 9 % Marktanteil gebracht haben (im Smartphonebereich). Falls jemand Interesse am Video hat, anbei der Link =):

youtu.be/FLcG0xPLN0w

Schönen Abend noch!  

Wiedereinstieg...Chart schaut gut aus, Halbleiterbranche ebenfalls,...baue auf eine „Vor-Zahlen-Rally“...und das der „Knoten“ endlich platzt...

DEUTSCHE BANK belässt AIXTRON auf 'Buy' Nachrichtenquelle: dpa-AFX Analysen  
|  08.10.2020, 11:20    FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX Analyser) -

Die Deutsche Bank hat die Einstufung für Aixtron auf "Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 14 Euro belassen. Jüngste Branchendaten signalisierten, dass das dritte Quartal für die europäischen Halbleiterunternehmen besser als bislang erwartet ausgefallen sein dürfte, schrieb Analyst Uwe Schupp in einer am Donnerstag vorliegenden Sektorstudie. Vor allem die zunehmende Nachfrage aus den Segmenten Automobil und Internet der Dinge sollte die Chipproduzenten und -ausrüster gestützt haben./edh/ag
==========================================
Ob die 11 € denn jetzt mal sicher halten?

fel, unfortunately haven’t seen anything in relation to the Samsung results.

Fyi, a seeking alpha article on Cree – not that interesting apart from the paragraph „What could be driving interest in Cree“ explaining the end markets for Cree (and thus relevance for Aixtron as well): seekingalpha.com/article/...ning-even-though-is-not-all-well?

And for chartist we do have something as well (though it feels like copy + paste of numerous previous articles with same tenor): www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/...aufsignal-20218613.html

könnte sich ausbilden...dann wäre Luft bis knapp 20€...ist im MDax, Aussichten könnten sich massiv verbessern, Eigenkapitalquote top, Qualität sowieso.
Auf das die Trägheit „besiegt“ wird...

BARCLAYS belässt AIXTRON auf 'Overweight'
Nachrichtenquelle: dpa-AFX Analysen  |  12.10.2020, 11:01  LONDON (dpa-AFX Analyser) -

Die britische Investmentbank Barclays hat die Einstufung für Aixtron auf "Overweight" mit einem Kursziel von 13,50 Euro belassen. Der europäische Technologie-Hardware-Sektor habe die Corona-Krise bislang gut gemeistert, schrieb Analyst Andrew Gardiner in einer am Montag vorliegenden Branchenstudie. Die Geschäftsentwicklungen der Unternehmen im dritten Quartal dürften vor allem dank einer Erholung der Absatzbranchen Automobil und Mobilfunk gut ausgefallen sein. [b]Der Sektorausblick auf das laufende Schlussquartal sollte die Konsensschätzungen übertreffen.[/b]/edh/mis