Aixtron purpose of this thread

Points taken.

Trotzdem Nr. 3 bei den Tecdax Unternehmen mit 50,92% Kurssteigerung in 2022.
https://www.finanzen.net/top_ranking/top_ranking_detail.asp?inRanking=4132&inPos=29

Nur 54 deutsche Aktien beenden Jahr im Plus
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/aktien/boerse-die-besten-deutschen-aktien-im-jahr-2022_id_181701692.html

Gruß
baggo-mh

an Aixtron customer according to jeffries reported great numbers yesterday and gave a positive outlook.
"ramping silicon carbide, which remains ahead of plan."

The stock added > 9% yesterday. 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4598535-on-semiconductor-corporation-on-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript

The future for Aixtron looks bright...... I keep wearing shades.
 baggo-mh

Um die erwartete steigende Nachfrage nach Halbleitern auf Basis von Siliziumkarbid (SiC) für Automobil- und Solaranwendungen decken zu können, hat der deutsche Hersteller Infineon Technologies einen weiteren Lieferantenvertrag geschlossen.

Das chinesische Unternehmen SICC wird Infineon danach mit 150-Millimeter-Wafern und -Boules beliefern und langfristig einen zweistelligen prozentualen Anteil der prognostizierten Nachfrage decken, wie der DAX-Konzern in Neubiberg bei München mitteilte.
https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...ertrag-in-china-12420280
Das hat keine nachteiligen Auswirkungen auf Aixtron, im Gegenteil.

Boules: daraus werden Wafer geschnitten
Wafer: darauf findet die Epitaxe (mit Aixtron Reaktoren) statt

Gruß
 baggo-mh

Yes. We do have an evaluation system for GaN power electronics. It's for the transition from 6-inch to 8-inch. The product is running, and we're in a competitive situation there. Our customers asked us to extend that evaluation through this year, which we are going to do. And so it's a little slower taking off than we had originally planned, and we're still working on it. I would say we probably won't see any meaningful gain on silicon power activity beyond where we are today until the 2024 time frame. That being said, we also have GaN on silicon for micro LED, where we're working with a few customers on opportunities there. and that continues to develop as well for GaN silicon.

David Duley

Okay, a little bit topics to silicon carbide. You've made this acquisition. And I thought you've talked about, if I'm not mistaken, having a demo later just late this calendar year. Could you help us understand the size, the market opportunity that you're chasing in the silicon carbide marketplace? And who the key competition is for this deposition tool I guess, that you're talking about?

William Miller

Yes. So according to the they're sizing the silicon carbide device market at $2 billion going to about $6 billion in 2027, and the corresponding epitaxi equipment market is about $250 million these days going to about $0.5 billion by 2027. There are a few participants in that market today, namely ASMI. And then New Flare and AXtRoNore (wahrscheinlich ist Aixtron gemeint) competitors in that space?

David Duley

Okay. And -- was it accurate that you will have a demo later this year? And then when would you expect to have, I guess, meaningful revenue from this particular opportunity?

William Miller

Yes. Thanks for reminding me the first half of your question. I would say right now, we are shipping our demo tool from Sweden to our demo lab in Somerset, New Jersey. As we speak, we're going to be facilitizing it. And our plan is to be demo ready in the second half of the year. We've met with a number of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 players in this market. They're all very excited about the acquired technology with our worldwide service footprint is very intriguing to them. And so we're pretty much at the key milestone of having to have the demo tool put down films that can be measured and sent to our customers. And then we would expect to have eval systems for some Tier 1s in 2024 and then also start selling directly to some Tier 2 customers as well. So I think we're planning for some modest revenue in '24, but I wouldn't think -- I think we have more meaningful revenue in 2025.

David Duley

Okay. And -- thanks for giving the competitive layout. Who would you say is the leader in this space now? And I would imagine you're going to have to show a fairly significant cost of ownership advantage versus whoever that leader is, what would be the key reasons that you can show a superior cost of ownership?

William Miller

There's -- the market actually varies pretty significantly by region or what tier. So we do understand cost of ownership is critical as well as yield, and yield plays a big part in that. And so from our discussions with our customers, they do see an opportunity for us to have a cost of ownership advantage of what's available in the market today.

Gruß
baggo-mh

Hi Baggo,
I agree with your assessment.
CWL

Michael Schröder hat sich mal wieder zu Wort gemeldet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vN_MNbUjxEI&t=2s
und wie immer bullish unterwegs.

Dann geistert seit gestern die headline durch den Blätterwald.

Heikler Vorstoß: Habeck will künftig China-Pläne deutscher Unternehmen kontrollieren
Dabei geht es um Investitionen deutscher Unternehmen in China nicht um Exporte. Das ganze läuft unter der Bezeichnung: OUTBOUND-SCREENING

Dazu heißt es in der Wirtschaftswoche: „Sie können als Unternehmen jedes Geschäft mit China machen, wir werden ihnen keine Knüppel zwischen die Beine werfen“, versicherte Schnichels, Habecks eigener Abteilungsleiter für Außenwirtschaft.

Gruß  baggo-mh

Aixtron: Bis zu 100 Millionen Euro für Innovationszentrum am Hauptsitz in NRW
HERZOGENRATH (dpa-AFX) -

Der Chipindustrieausrüster Aixtron will seine Forschungs- und Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten am Firmensitz in Herzogenrath kräftig ausbauen. Bis zu 100 Millionen Euro sollen in ein Innovationszentrum fließen, um Platz für die nächsten Produktgenerationen sowie weitere Produktentwicklungen zu schaffen, teilte der im MDax notierte Konzern am Dienstag mit. Ein genauer Zeitplan wurde nicht genannt. Zum Vergleich: für 2023 plant das Unternehmen ein Umsatzwachstum auf 580 bis 640 Millionen Euro.

"Wir adressieren mit unseren Produkten die Megatrends Digitalisierung, Elektromobilität und Energieeffizienz und verzeichnen eine starke und stetig wachsende Nachfrage", sagte Konzernchef Felix Grawert laut Mitteilung.

Aixtron ist mit seinen Maschinen zur Herstellung von Verbindungshalbleitern ein Profiteur dieser Trends. Die Anlagen zur Herstellung der Grundlage von Elektronikchips auf Basis etwa von Galliumnitrid (GaN) und Siliziumkarbid (SiC) sind begehrt, denn solche Chips sind kleiner, energieeffizienter und temperaturbeständiger als klassische Siliziumchips. Damit können sie mehr Strom schneller leiten, was Schnellladetechnik für Heimelektronik und E-Autos genauso ermöglicht, wie den sparsameren Betrieb von Daten- und Serverzentren sowie bestimmte 5G-Mobilfunk-Anwendungen./mis/ngu

Hi everybody,

Big announcement by Aixtron yesterday, just ahead of todays AGM - will anybody attend?

Investing up to € 100m into a new innovation and R&D Center. Wao. That is a lot of money! One question is over which time period; 2-3 years I guess? That will hurt FCF and thus dividends/buybacks/M&A.

BUT it in my view shows A LOT of confidence for the next 10 years and beyond. Which products will be developed here? What are the next big trends? I assume this is beyond MicroLED?!?

Why is NOW the right time for this sizeable investment? Why not in 3 years? What makes them as confident?

I think they did not give many details in the press release. So it would be great to hear your thoughts and views.

But it seems to imply next megatrend beyond MicroLED, more revenue potential and margins.

Regards,
Fel  

This is another really big one
www.benzinga.com/news/23/05/32440363/...on-ev-chip-production

“I see a new ASML in the making” 
Zitat laut Felix Grawert von einem Analysten der Bank of America auf einer kürzlich in USA durchgeführten roadshow .

Zunächst mal zu den Nachrichten von gestern und vorgestern.

Innovationszentrum:
100 Millionen sind nur für die Hülle, ohne Maschinen und Techniker gedacht.
Laut Kim Schindelhauer sollen dort einmal 50 hochqualifizierte Physiker arbeiten.
Baubeginn: 2023
Fertigstellung: Ende 2024
Es sollen neue Produktgenerationen entwickelt und Schulungen (extern und intern – Servicetechniker) durchgeführt werden.

ON-Semiconductor:
Habe die Gelegenheit genutzt und dem Aufsichtsrat Prof. Dr. Biagosch, den hatte Kim Schindelhauer mir bei Frühstück vorgestellt, und einigen Mitarbeitern zum On-Semi win zu gratuliert. Habe immer große smiles und Rückbestätigungen geerntet, sodass man mit 100er Sicherheit davon ausgehen kann, dass Aixtron die Epitaxie Reaktoren liefern wird.

Zur HV
ich bin ja als Aixtron Bulle verschrien und muss gestehen ich nach dem Besuch der HV jetzt noch bullischer unterwegs bin als zuvor.

Teil 2 folgt

Gruß
 baggo-mh

Verantwortlich ist Felix Grawert persönlich. Das Ministerium bat Aixtron Ende 2022 Vorkehrungen in die Reaktoren einzubauen, die eine Zweckentfremdung verhindern. Dies wurde unverzüglich ungesetzt und man glaubte die Reaktoren noch in Q1 ausliefern zu können. Leider blieben die Lizenzen per 31.03. aus.

Felix sprach von, sehr positiver Rückmeldung vom Ministerium und er erwartet das die Reaktoren bis Sommer ausgeliefert sein werden.

Chr. Danninger: „Die Erwartung ist die Lizenzen kurzfristig zu erhalten und die Reaktoren mehrheitlich in Q2 und den Rest in Q3 auszuliefern“.

Es gab keine Kundencancellations aufgrund der eingetretenen Verzögerungen.
Die Jahresprognose ist selbst dann nicht gefährdet wenn man die Lizenzen nicht erhalten würde.

Teil 3 folgt

Gruß
 baggo-mh

die weiteren Teile nicht posten. Habe deshalb den kompletten Bericht bei Wallstreet Online hochgeladen.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/880385-1-10/aixtron-die-perle-im-technologiebereich#beitrag_73872712

Gruß
baggo-mh

To me the most interesting information is:

"How long does a SiC production run take - also approx. 6 hours

One could deduce from this:
- Aixtron's SiC tools list price $10 million
- up to 25% of the investment sum mentioned in the press release is accounted for by epitaxy tools.

The current SiC tool delivery quantity from Aixtron is sufficient for the production of 1 million epitaxial wafers. This in turn smells for 2-3 million electric vehicles.

Currently, 80 million vehicles are newly registered every year."
-------------
It is surprising to learn a SiC tool is listed for ~$10m.

Market research has projected annual production of 20 million EV's in 2025.  If one wafer for 3 EV's, then roughly 6 million 6" SiC epi wafers annual capacity are needed by 2025.  That's 6x of what Aixtron currently has provided.  People can guesstimate how many more G10 SiC tools would be needed if Aixtron gains 50% of the share.

Thanks for the feedback CWL1

By 2035 no more combustion chamber cars should be sold in the EU.
Then the number in your calculation jumbs from 20  to 80 Million.

Let me post my question: "If ON-Semi announces an investment of 2 Billion into a new SiC fab, how much of the total investment would be for Epitaxie tools?"

The answer came immediately: "Take 50 tools at 10 Million each"

I used ON-SEMI as an example to gain further confirmation that Aixtron will be the supplier of choice.

To me it also adds food for my theory that during negotiations for supply of full factories a "blanket order" is being signed. Against this blanket order which covers 100% of what will be needed if the factory is fully equipped, socalled "release orders" are being placed on an annual basis with a shipping plan per quarter.

That would give Aixtron the freedom to only report the release orders according to the shipping plan.

The best is yet to come as we watch a new ASML in the making
 baggo-mh

PS: The blanket and release order system is what Air Canada used for their multi year supply contracts.

will need at least 20 Million charging possibilities. Quick charging for sure SiC according to the AGM.

Regular charging at home over night on the wallbox:  GaN potentially feasible - my thoughts

An enormous wave of demand for SiC and GaN chips is rolling towards the chip manufacturers and therefore the maschine manufacturers with 80 Million EV in 2035 annually.

Kind regards
baggo-mh

NVIDIA reported a blowout quarter due to AI.  AI requires tremendous data generation, collection, communication, sensing, etc.  That means optoelectronics GaAs and InP chips made from Aixtron's tools would be in high demand.  

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2023-05/59194426-eqs-dd-aixtron-se-dr-felix-grawert-uebertragung-von-46-987-aktien-der-aixtron-se-gemaess-arbeitsvertraglicher-vereinbarung-022.htm

Well deserved in my opinion, as Aixtron was one of teh best performing stocks in 2022.

Kind regards
baggo-mh

Kurs 28,75 
Ziel 35,00 
Potential 21,74% 

Leidet unter China-Beschränkungen und fehlenden Exportgenehmigungen.
Auftragslage sehr stark. Aussichtsreich.

Gruß
baggo-mh

I just read somethin very interesting.

www.spektrum.de/news/...n%2520Element%2520flankiert%2520wird.

Has anyone heard of this before?

"Im Unterschied zum kohlenstoffbasierten Graphen offenbaren sie jedoch eine Eigenschaft, die sie für den Einsatz in Computerchips geradezu prädestiniert: Sie sind wie Silizium Halbleiter, das heißt, ihre Stromleitfähigkeit lässt sich innerhalb von Sekundenbruchteilen verändern. Darum kommen sie zumindest von der Theorie her am ehesten für den Einsatz in Chips in Betracht."

Shit I thought Graphene was the future..... now it seems to be MoS2......

Gruß
baggo-mh

Hi Baggo,

MoS2 or MoSeS 2D materials and Aixtron's potential role in its presentation linked were touched on in posts #1324 and #1328.  

Regards,
CWL

Thank you @CWL for highlighting the fact that I am getting old or running out of memory space.

Prof. Heuken actually says
- this material is going to replace Si on the international roadmap
- that they are working on a system to deposit these materials on 300mm wafers


So not only do we have: 
- SiC grwoing at CAGR of 30% by 2027
- GaN growing at a CAGR of 50% by 2027
- MicroLED
- MoS2 the material to replace Si

One should not sell a single share, but buy more!!

Gruß
baggo-mh

That's why Aixtron invests 100m on the R&D of 2D semiconductor,  and also Gen. 4 compound semiconductor which is Gallium Oxide (GaO) thin film deposition.

GaO. I need to read up on or was that in Prof. Heukens video as well?

I was fantasizing of the next product release G10-MoS₂ Now you are saying it could as well be G10-GaO.

The MoS₂ System would have to be on 300mm to be competitive with Si production and compatible with the existing production equipment. (middle & back end)

Thanks for the new insights.

Gruß
baggo-mh

“Adding a high-quality SiC epi-layer onto a raw SiC wafer is a critical process step prior to individual device manufacturing, and adding the Aixtron in-house epi capability to existing subcontract process flows expands available capacity, lowers finished wafer cost , increases quality and reduces cycle times,” says Dan Kinzer, Navitas’ chief operating officer/chief technology officer (COO/CTO) & co-founder. “The development and manufacturing business partnership with Aixtron includes ongoing technical and co-development support.”

Navitas’ investment in internal epi capacity is one of several initiatives in support of its recently announced $760m customer pipeline of estimated potential future business, based on expressed customer interest for qualified programs. While the conversion of this pipeline into orders or shipments depends on many factors in addition to possessing available capacity, the firm expects that its epi capacity expansion will provide a favorable return on investment under most anticipated planning scenarios.

Navitas recently completed an $80m follow-on offering of its common stock. It plans to use the proceeds for strategic manufacturing investments, among other possible uses, including working capital and general corporate purposes.

Vitesco Technologies is securing silicon carbide (SiC) supply capacity worth $1.9 billion (€1.75 billion) in a ten year supply deal with onsemi.

The German tier one automotive supplier is paying onsemi $250 million (€230 million) upfront to secure that production capacity, and the two companies will collaborate to further optimize the design of traction inverters using onsemi’s EliteSiC MOSFETs.

The €230m will fund equipment for SiC boule growth, wafer production and epitaxy to secure access to SiC capacity where onsemi’s Czech plant is a key supplier. The equipment will be used to produce SiC wafers to support Vitesco Technologies’ growing SiC demand. In parallel, onsemi says it will continue to invest substantially into end-to-end SiC supply chain.

“Energy-efficient silicon carbide power semiconductors are at the beginning of a big surge in demand. That is why it is imperative for us to get access to the complete SiC value chain together with onsemi. With this investment we have a secure supply of a key technology over the next ten years and beyond,” said Andreas Wolf, CEO of Vitesco Technologies. This is key to reliably supplying Vitesco’s customers.

“This collaboration will enable Vitesco Technologies to address their customers’ demand for longer range and higher performance in electric vehicles. onsemi provides superior performance and quality, supply assurance, and manufacturing at scale of SiC technologies based on decades of experience in manufacturing power semiconductor products in high volume automotive applications,” said Hassane El-Khoury, president and CEO of onsemi.

www.eenewseurope.com/en/...c-capacity-in-1-9bn-ten-year-deal/