Dow Jones: 700 Punkte Verlust steht an !

Consolidating..

Dow holds at lows, forms another continuation pattern.

The Dow pulled back 42 points off yesterday's Close, as the index pulled back within the boundaries of the wide trading range that has formed from 10,170 to 10,275, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

The index continues to hold at the lows of the recent major downmove, and looks to be gearing up for another solid move upon the break from the trading range. Look for continued sideways movement within the boundaries of the range before another break occurs. A downside break through 10,170 will likely spark a continuation toward a target of 10,000, while an upside push through 10,275 will indicate lasting strength toward 10,350.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day below a clear short term resistance level at 10,220, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for weakness below this level, unless an upside break occurs.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will watch 10,300 up, and 10,170 down; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back off yesterday's lows today, gaining slightly for the session. Each index continues to hold within ill-formed trading ranges, which we will watch heading into Monday's market. *

Summary

The Dow ended the session higher today, after pulling back within the boundaries of the wide trading range. Look for continued range movement within the consolidation until a clear and solid break occurs. Watch 10,275 up, and 10,170 down.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Bounce at 50%

Dow rallies off lows, gains modestly for the session.

The Dow sold off early in the session this morning, but held at the lower boundary of the major trading range, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. However, the index got an upside break from an intraday consolidation to spark a 100 point reversal off the lows, as the Dow ended the day higher by 25 points.

The Dow continues to trade within the boundaries of the wide trading range, which has formed from 10,160 to 10,275, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. As we mentioned before, look for the index to continue trading within these boundaries until another big move occurs. A break from this range will likely spark a significant move.

The Daily Chart shows the Dow has bounced off the 10,170 level, which is 50% Retracement from the 9,850 low to the 10,490 high. Markets tend to change trend at key Fibonacci levels (38%, 50%, 62%), therefore, we could see a continuation higher in the medium term, especially if 10,275 is crossed. Otherwise, a downside break below 10,160 will indicate further weakness.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day within the boundaries of a tight consolidation at the highs from 10,228 to 10,255, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for direction at the Open tomorrow.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 10,170, but stopped out for a 20 point loss. We are out of the market and will watch 10,275 up, and 10,150 down; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ took another loss today, while the S&P gained slightly for the session. Each the index remains within its trading range, which we will continue to watch in the medium term. Watch the boundaries tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow ended the session higher today, after rallying strongly off the session lows. The index seems to be holding at key 50% Retracement, which could boost the index sharply higher in the medium term, especially if 10,275 is broken to the upside. Watch the range boundaries for action tomorrow.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Consolidating..

Dow trades sideways, stays within tight consolidation range.

The Dow traded sideways the entire session today, forming a tight consolidation at the highs of the recent upmove, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The consolidation has formed beneath the upper boundary of the wide trading range, which has continued to develop from 10,160 to 10,275, which indicates that we could see an upside break tomorrow.

Given that the consolidation has formed at the highs, we will keep a watchful eye on the upper boundary at 10,255. An upside break here could spark an 80 point rally to 10,320 tomorrow, according to consolidation theory.

However, a downside break is still possible and could provide an equally powerful move. Watch 10,230 down, as a break here could fuel a move to support at around 10,160.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day within the boundaries of a tight consolidation from 10,244 to 10,253, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will watch 10,275 up, and 10,225 down tomorrow; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ slid slowly lower today, while the S&P gained slightly for the session. Each index has formed bullish ranges, which could make for strength tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow ended the day flat, as the index held within the boundaries of a very tight range. Look for a break from the consolidation to fuel a solid move tomorrow. Watch 10,230 down, and 10,255 up tomorrow.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Downside Break

Dow breaks lower range boundary. Watch upper trend lines Monday.

The Dow popped up this morning, but quickly faded to the downside to the lower range boundary at 10,160. It formed a tight consolidation there for most of the trading session, before breaking to the downside, ending the day over points 23 in the red.

The downside break from the range implies further weakness in the medium term. Looking at the 15 Minute Chart, you can see the Dow has formed a clear upper trend line across the highs of today at 10,170. We expect continued weakness below this level for Monday. However, an upside break through the trend line could lead to a move higher to minor resistance at 10,240.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a steep trend line across the highs of the late day down move seen in the 5 Minute Chart at 10,145. Watch for a break or bounce at this level Monday morning to indicate the direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this afternoon at 10,150. We are still in this trade and will hold our stops at 10,170. We will watch 10,130 down, and 10,240 up; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P mirrored the Dow as they opened up, but fell to the lower boundaries to form a tight consolidation. They broke to the downside and ended the session at the lows. *

Summary

The Dow popped up at the Open, but dropped to the lower range boundary at 10,160. It then formed a consolidation at the lows, and drifted lower to the Close. We are Short at 10,150, holding our stops at 10,170.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Bela Patel, Market Analyst
bpatel@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Down Move

Dow continues lower below upper trend line.

The Dow honored its upper trend this morning, and traded lower to form a tight consolidation at the lows. It then broke to the upside and through the upper trend line, but quickly turned lower off the intraday high, ending the day over 45 points down.

Looking at the Daily Chart, you can see that the index is trading in the middle of its sloping channel. It is at a decision area, where an upside move could lead to a move to the upper boundary at 10,350, or a downside move could lead to the lower boundary at 9,650.

The index is continuing to trade below an upper trend line seen in the 60 Minute Chart at 10,150. We expect continued weakness below this level. We could see the index form a range at the lows below the trend line. An upside move through 10,180 will spark a push to minor resistance at 10,280.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the Close between 10,085 and 10,105. Watch those levels tomorrow for a break to indicate direction.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short at 10,150. We will move our stops to breakeven at 10,150. Watch 10,000 down, and 10,180 up; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P mirrored the Dow as they opened down, and formed consolidations at the lows. They broke to the upside, but pushed lower off their intraday highs to the Close. *

Summary

The Dow traded below the upper trend line formed across the highs, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, and continued to trend lower, ending the day 45 points in the red. We are still Short at 10,150, holding our stops at 10,150.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Bela Patel, Market Analyst
bpatel@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Slow Reversal

Dow tests 10,000, ends session slightly higher.

The Dow opened the session lower this morning, but slowly rose higher throughout the day, ending the session higher by just 4 points, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index looks to be holding above 10,000 for the time being, but we could see further activity at this level before another clear move occurs.

The Dow seems to have formed the framework for a new trading range at the lows from 9,950 to 10,100, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. We could see continued range movement between these levels before another big move occurs. A break from this range will indicate movement in the direction of the break.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of today's slow upmove, seen in the 1 and 5 Minute Charts. A downside break of the line at 10,035 will indicate weakness tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the Dow Short this morning at 9,988, but stopped out for a breakeven trade. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 9,950 down, and 10,150 up tomorrow; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each got a nice reaction rally today, pulling back 50% and 38% off yesterday's lows, respectively. Look for a continuation pattern to form to indicate direction tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow reversed off the day's lows to end the day in positive territory. Look for the index to form a continuation pattern at the lows while a new potential direction is established. However, as long as the Dow holds below 10,225, further downside activity is very likely.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

*Charts are not available at this time. They will be posted tomorrow morning. Sorry for the inconvenience.*

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team