This Copper Company in Arizona Can Still Make Huge Profits Even At
These Low Prices
By Jeb Handwerger 9-25-15
Last week, The Federal Reserve refused to raise interest rates
despite telegraphing to the market for many months that they would.
This may be leading to a complete loss of confidence in the ability to
withdraw from negative real rates as The Fed is facing a global
economy still in contraction. Eventually all these negative rates and
global currency devaluation will boost the prices of commodities
especially copper.
There is no doubt about it that copper which is a proxy of the
health of the global economy has been in a five year downtrend
despite stock markets reaching multi-year highs. Remember copper
and the stock market should rise together. When stocks rise too high
without copper confirming that move it should signal caution for a
correction like we are seeing over the past few weeks in the S&P 500
which was overdue for a correction. However, despite copper going
down for five years, some deep pocketed contrarian investors are
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goldstocktrades.com/blogonce again buying equity positions in copper producers. Billionaire
Carl Icahn bought an 8.5% equity stake in the largest copper producer
Freeport (FCX).
Why would he be buying copper when it has not yet broken out
of a downtrend? The big money billionaires like Carl Icahn need to be
early and welcome a declining market to acquire a large position at
cheap prices. They can wait a few weeks or months before the turn
when it will be too late to buy a sizeable position as they have
patience. The best times
to buy the lowest cost
copper assets are near
the bottoms of the bear
market. Its hard to catch
the bottom as once the
bounce begins and funds
reenter it will be difficult
to build a significant position without chasing the stock. There are
very few high quality near term copper producers located in the US
like Excelsior. All the other near term US copper producers have
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goldstocktrades.com/blogbeen swallowed up by larger companies such as Hudbay and Taseko.
Is it too far fetched to think that Excelsior could be the next takeout
target for a huge copper producer looking to diversify into lower cost
projects in their project pipeline in safer jurisdictions?
Copper is declining but may be on the verge of bottoming for a
few reasons. Supply is extremely tight. Glencore shutdown two major
African copper miners.
Other big producers are also
cutting back production. It
may be just the beginning
as some of the high cost
mines once they are shut
down are unlikely to be
turned on again. Most of
these mines have had their
high grade stripped already.
The recent downturn since the Credit Crisis has restricted the ability
for junior mining companies to discover new copper deposits.
Demand in the US for copper has picked up as record low interest
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goldstocktrades.com/blogrates have boosted new home construction to record levels. Once
copper bottoms and begins its next upcycle I want my subscribers to
be in what I consider the best junior copper miner. Dont wait to long
as this bottom could be sooner than later and the market could go into
deficit soon as some major mines have been shutdown.
The time period for a major supply shortfall in copper is 2018,
when this junior should come into production. I have never
recommended a pure copper developer, however the time has come
for me to suggest Excelsior Mining (MIN.V or EXMGF), who could
make big profits even with todays five year low prices.
What is so unique about Excelsiors Gunnison Project in Arizona
out of all copper developers? It may not be the biggest copper asset in
the world but it is huge at 110 million pounds per year near term
producer located right here in the USA in Arizona. Excelsior could
become one of the lowest cost producers with direct costs around $.
70 per pound. Because of the downturn in commodities and copper,
Excelsiors market cap is minuscule around $25 million, around
1/30th of their Net Present Value. This small market cap is enticing
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goldstocktrades.com/blogbecause it could profit hundreds of millions of dollars annually when
it gets into production.
So why is Excelsior so cheap right now? Retail investors dont
quite understand in-situ recovery yet in the copper space like they
understand it in the uranium space. In uranium, in situ recovery
makes up a huge part of annual production.
Whats nice about ISR is that you dont have to crush rock to
recover the metal. You recover it by pumps running fluids leaching
the metal from the ore zone. It is much safer with hardly any
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goldstocktrades.com/blogfootprint. The Capex and Opex are much lower than peers. The
mining industry is increasingly employing this method as it is more
environmentally friendly and the costs are considerably less
especially in uranium.
Does Excelsior have the capital to move forward? Similar to
Carl Icahn investing in Freeport, a smart money private equity fund
called Greenstone Resources invested $10 million into Excelsior at $.
34. Now we can get shares at a discount as it last traded at $.23.
Greenstone has some top personnel who before giving that money did
significant due diligence that this project can be permitted to get to
production and that it was the best copper project in the cupboard for
the next bull cycle.
Excelsior made an initial run post PDAC to $.30 on the OTCQX.
It has since returned to major support near 52 week lows. I believe
the next bounce could be coming which could even take it past
previous highs at $.30. I would not be surprised if copper bottoms
and by the end of 2016 Excelsior could be a $1+ stock. However, from
the technicals I could see a measured move eventually to $.60 with a
©Jeb Handwerger 2015
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goldstocktrades.com/blogpause at $.45 along the way which would be the 2014 high. I bought
some shares on Friday to average down from what I bought on the
breakout at the end of June.
For more information on Excelsior (MIN.V or EXMGF) contact:
JJ Jennex, B.A.Comm. VP Corporate Affairs
Tel: 604-681-8030 (ext. 240) Toll Free: 1-866-683-8030
E-mail: jjennex@excelsiormining.com
Disclosure: Please be aware that I have a conflict of interest as I own
shares in Excelsior Mining and would benefit if the price reach my
targets. Excelsior Mining is also a website sponsor. Please do your
own due diligence as this is a small-cap stock which means there are
risks. Please see risk factors in companys filings on sedar.com or by
requesting them from the company.
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