News of June 01, 2012
The 4 events I am waiting for in my crystal ball on the future of diesel aircraft.
They are: initiatives of Cessna; progress of the drone market; R&D addressing innovative helicopters, and opening of the Chinese GA low altitude market.
Let’s see the ‘big picture’: Major actors and long-term trends. Since 1945 when the last German diesel planes were destroyed, we have seen no diesel aircraft flying until 1998 when both SMA Engines and Thielert Motoren (now Centurion) flew a demo plane with their prototypes. Since then, aero diesel lived a long incubation and witnessed several start-ups, and then the still tiny market came to be dominated by Thielert/Centurion. We are working on an update of world population of diesel aircraft, but the figures we had by end 2011 were of some 2,500 diesel planes flying, a majority of them being made by Diamond Air, and a big majority of them being equipped by the Thielert/Centurion of 125 and 155HP and some with the Austro Engine of 170HP. Meanwhile aero diesels made by Centurion and DeltaHawk found their way on the defense market, in Drones (UAV, or unmanned aircraft). The Drone market cautiously adopted the diesel engine because it uses the standard diesel fuel which is common to U. S. arms, to NATO, as well as to virtually all weaponry/defense aerial, terrestrial or marine vehicles.
Meanwhile, a wild card of this minuscule market is the one of LSA, Ultra lights and Experimental. I guestimate (any data are welcome) that it represents worldwide a couple of hundred flying machines equipped with Wilksch WAM 100HP 2-stroke engine or with an automobile diesel, from Renault/PSA, Suzuki or Opel. These are interesting (see our story of last month) because they are by far the cheapest diesel planes, and they silently but surely accumulate data and hours of flight which contribute to defending the case for aero diesels. It is difficult to assess how many of such diesel airplanes are flying today because no data are issued whenever an enlightened amateur installs a recovered automobile diesel in his homemade. Most of them seem to be located in France, Germany, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. I haven’t heard of any of them in the Americas but may be missing something.
The North American market is remarkably inactive in aero diesel applications because the huge majority of private pilots flying piston-engined aircraft (around half a million U. S. pilots) actually fly very little (less than 50 hours a year) on a very old airplane (average age 36 plus?) and cannot afford a new plane; or, when they can, will purchase an Avgas plane. This for two reasons: as long as Avgas remains available at any price, because Lycoming and Continental still can offer a widespread maintenance service which no diesel supplier offers; and even id one of them did, said pilots do not fly sufficient hours to justify the economy of flying with diesel and Jetfuel.
A few firms are experimenting on a diesel helicopter, each time considering a totally innovative engine (see the OPOC or the FairDiesel projects we talked about here).
Last but not least: China, which I visited in late April. The Chinese government made a commitment 2 years ago to a major plan opening the low altitude airspace to privately-owned, GA aircraft. The plan includes creating or making available some 1,500 small airfields within ten years or so. China today has on its register about 1,000 piston-engined planes. 100LL Avgas is not available and will not be made available: Chinese aviation gasoline is and will be of same octane than their auto fuel. Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) acquired Continental Engines stating their interest in Continental’s development in aero diesel (inherited from SMA). Sunward Corporation, a major privately-held manufacturer of industrial vehicles, decided to diversify in GA, joint ventured with DeltaHawk to finance certification of their existing diesel engines, and developed from scratch their own trainer, the Aurora, equipped with a 100HP Rotax for the time being. Cessna, Diamond Air and several other GA manufacturers have an industrial presence or are planning one in China.
Cessna Aircraft Company has a unique position on the world GA market because it is the only manufacturer offering a range of products covering at same time the simplest certified piston-engined planes (162 Sky catcher and 172), the General Purpose turboprop airplane with the Caravan, and a complete range of business jets, while being the clear world leader: Over 43,000 Cessna 172s were produced, a world record, making of it the most ubiquitous plane on the planet. Regarding aero diesels, Cessna hesitated a long time, and then decided in 2007 to market a 172 Thielert thinking mostly of the export markets. Unfortunately Cessna decided in May 2008 to suspend sales because Thielert was going through the financial troubles that eventually lead the firm to be financially restructured under Centurion’s management. This was bad news for the whole aero diesel industry.
Remark on the general aero diesel paradigm: All present competitors are dramatically under-capitalized and short of cash. Yet the gross figure for any investment for marketing at full scale (distribution, sales dealership, spare parts, customer service including training…) a new aero engine which is certified as such, STC’d for several applications and OEM’d successfully by at least Cessna as world leader, amounts to between 200 and 500 million dollars. None of the big ones (neither Centurion, nor SMA backed and owned by Safran, nor Continental now owned by AVIC) has invested this amount yet.
And now for my updated crystal ball. If you have different or supplemental data please email me.
Cessna will come back with a single-engine plane OEM’d with a diesel. The question is not if, but when. Could it be a Skycatcher with a 100HP 2-stroke? A 172 again equipped with a Centurion, probably the 155HP model? A 182 equipped with the SMA or a Continental derived from the SMA? A 206 equipped with same but beefed-up engine? In any case Cessna will be aiming first at exports to countries where Avgas is unavailable and where demand is growing, and to professional markets beginning with flight academies. But any of these moves will mean that the aero diesel is now recognized as the long term solution for piston-engined aircraft, and other manufacturers will then follow the lead.
The Drone market will grow, and not only for military applications although they will remain the main ones. Simply because, to execute any attack, defense or security mission, a Drone is the cheapest platform in terms of dollars and human resources. A Drone of the future must burn Jetfuel. And the cheapest way to produce a Drone is therefore with a diesel engine. Drones offer two advantages: The engine doesn’t need a long TBO; and any unmanned vehicle is much faster to certify. So any news that a manufacturer is developing Drone sales or winning a new Drone tender means more resources to help developing GA diesels.
Until 2009, helicopter was viewed as a controversial application for diesels despite its advantages. Skepticism was based on vibration patterns and on weight per HP. But the main industry actors are aware that if an innovative diesel concept can overcome these concerns and offer an even better fuel efficiency, it would allow helicopters to reduce capital cost while becoming far more fuel efficient than with turbines, which dominate the market today. Several market niches within the general rotary wing market would then open and grow into significant market themselves.
André R. Teissier-duCros, Publisher
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