persönliche Beobachtungen zum US Immobilienmarkt

The GAO calls our current imprudent spending unsustainable... We've been through all this before, but thought it important to share the thoughts of the GAO... They seem to be right up there with mine... And, oh... The GAO didn't just come to this realization... They've been talking about this for some time now... It just seems that no one wants to accept what they keep telling us... Sort of like this guy in St. Louis that keeps getting on his soapbox and ranting about the Twin Deficits...

Yesterday, I told you about how kiwi had fallen over 1 cent in two days of trading... well, Finance Minister Cullen didn't exactly throw a flotation device to the reeling currency... Instead he had negative comments about kiwi! I told you some time during the last election period that the current administration consisting of the Reserve Bank Gov. and Finance Minister didn't like a strong kiwi, while the challenger and former Reserve Bank Gov., Don Brash, was all about a strong kiwi...

Well... We all know that Brash lost... And we're stuck with these two that like to talk trash about kiwi. I know that the Current Account Deficit in New Zealand is 9.7% of GDP... But is that any reason to talk trash of your own currency? I don't think so, Tim!

OK... It's been over a week since the coup in Thailand... And things seem to be moving along nicely... Recall that about a year ago, I told you that Thailand had just recently gone into a deficit, but that it was small and could be wiped out very quickly, which is why I left them on probationary status with the Current Account Surplus countries...

I love it when a plan comes together! It looks like Thailand is going to post their highest Current Account Surplus in 20 months when the August results are printed. In addition, an interim Prime Minister will be named next week, with general elections a year from now... So... As I said, things seem to be moving along nicely. The Thai baht has been trading sideways for a few days now, but once the Current Account shows a surplus again, I think we'll see the baht get back on the rally tracks!

Geez Louise... Pound sterling was sold yesterday (within a range) after a Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee minister held a press conference and discussed his views, which are opposite of the other MPC ministers. The range-bound sell-off began after MPC minister Blanchflower - the only member that voted against a hike on Aug 3 - said he saw more risk of a slowdown than a pickup in the UK economy. Come on! What else would he say? He voted against the rate hike, for crying out loud! Come on sterling traders, get some back bone!

We don't see that kind of splintering off over at the ECB! ECB ministers are all singing from the same song sheet... And recently have taken on a more belligerent tone to their hawkish stance... Which makes me think they might raise rates more than 25 BPS next week when they meet... I've talked about this before, the chance of a 50 BPS hike while the iron is hot... Personally, I would prefer to have a 25 BPS hike with continued hawkish talk, to keep the markets interested... A 50 BPS hike might make the markets think that the rate hike cycle is over... It's not over until I say it's over! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No! (ok, just for clarification, that's from Animal House, I'm fully aware of the fact that the Germans didn't bomb Pearl Harbor. I actually have to say this, because I had a reader one time heckle me because they didn't see the movie and thought I was a complete dolt!)

The loonie really caught some wind in its sails yesterday, as my trader friend at the Royal Bank of Canada told me that large U.S. names were selling greenbacks for loonies... It was hard to pinpoint exactly what was moving them to this trade... Could have been Mergers and Acquisitions generated, or the bump in oil price, or option expirations... Or... Maybe all of the above! Anyway... Loonies moved in a positive fashion for the first time in a week...

Well... Not only oil has bumped up again... So too has gold, as it traded over $600 late yesterday afternoon and added to that figure overnight. Is this the beginning of a general healing of commodities? I would certainly like to think so!

Currencies today: A$ .75, kiwi .6565, C$ .8995, euro 1.2720, sterling 1.88, Swiss .8930, ISK 69.90, rand 7.64, krone 6.47, SEK 7.28, forint 215, zloty 3.13, koruna 22.35, yen 117.50, baht 37.50, sing 1.5875, HKD 7.7880, INR 45.92, China 7.8965, pesos 11.04, dollar index 85.68, silver $11.67, and gold... $604

That's it for today... I thought that my travels were ending with the New Orleans Conference in November, but I just found out yesterday that I'm heading to Phoenix the first week of December... Hey... It's better than heading north at that time of year! El Hombre, Albert Pujols saved the day and maybe the season for the Cardinals with a blast last night... I'm off to spend a couple of hours in a dentist's chair today, oh boy! NOT! Have a great Thursday!

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837
www.everbank.com

PFENNIG DISCLOSURE

kam während meines Urlaubs raus:

NATIONAL FORECLOSURES REMAIN ELEVATED IN SEPTEMBER
By RealtyTrac Staff  

Foreclosures Up More Than 63 Percent From September 2005, 39 Percent Year to Date

IRVINE, Calif. – Oct. 11, 2006 – RealtyTrac™ (www.realtytrac.com/), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its September 2006 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows 112,210 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure during the month, a decrease of less than 1 percent from August, and a 63 percent increase from September 2005.  The report also shows a national foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 1,030 U.S. households, the third highest monthly foreclosure rate reported this year.
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RealtyTrac publishes the largest and most comprehensive national database of pre-foreclosure and foreclosure properties, with nearly 650,000 properties from more than 2,500 counties across the country, and is the foreclosure data provider to MSN Real Estate, Yahoo! Real Estate, The Wall Street Journal’s Real Estate Journal and Knight Ridder Online.

“September was the second straight month in which more than 110,000 new foreclosure filings were reported nationwide, evidence that the spike in August was not just a one-month anomaly,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Foreclosure filings are up 39 percent year to date and have already surpassed the total number reported in all of 2005. If they continue at the current pace, foreclosures will exceed the 1.2 million mark by the end of the year.”    

Michigan joins Colorado, Nevada in posting top state foreclosure rates
Michigan reported 7,846 properties entering some stage of foreclosure in September — a 14 percent increase from the previous month and nearly three times the number reported in September 2005 — boosting the state’s foreclosure rate to third highest among all the states. With one new foreclosure filing for every 538 households, Michigan’s foreclosure rate replaced Florida’s foreclosure rate among the nation’s top three.

Despite slowing foreclosure activity in September, Colorado and Nevada continued to document the first and second highest state foreclosure rates respectively. Colorado reported 4,485 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a decrease of 26 percent from the previous month and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 408 households — 2.5 times the national average. Nevada reported 1,919 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a decrease of nearly 5 percent from the previous month and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 452 households — 2.3 times the national average.

Other states reporting foreclosure rates among the nation’s 10 highest were Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Illinois, Texas, Ohio and Utah.

California claims top spot among states with most new foreclosure filings
Thanks to a 19 percent increase in foreclosure activity, California leapfrogged past Texas and Florida to report the most new foreclosure filings of any state in September. The state documented 14,806 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, nearly three times the number reported in September 2005 and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 825 households — 1.3 times the national average. The state’s foreclosure activity has risen more than 40 percent over the last two months.

With 12,946 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, Florida reported the second highest number of new foreclosure filings in September. That was a 21 percent drop from the previous month, but still up 41 percent from September 2005. The state’s foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 564 households was fourth highest among the states.

Texas reported 11,988 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a 16 percent decrease from the previous month but a 23 percent increase from September 2005. The state’s foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 671 households dropped out of the nation’s top five but was still 1.5 times the national average.

Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, Colorado, Indiana and New York rounded out the 10 states with the most new foreclosure filings in September.

Highest metro foreclosure rates in Colorado, Michigan and Florida
For the second month in a row, Greeley, Colo., posted the highest foreclosure rate among the nation’s 252 largest metropolitan areas. The Greeley metro area (Weld County) documented 393 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 168 households — more than six times the national average.

With 4,190 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, the Detroit metropolitan area (Wayne County) registered the nation’s second highest metro foreclosure rate — one new foreclosure filing for every 197 households.

Miami’s foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 271 households ranked as the nation’s third highest metro foreclosure rate. The metro area (Miami-Dade County) reported 3,147 properties entering some stage of foreclosure in September.

The RealtyTrac Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides the total number of homes entering some stage of foreclosure nationwide and by state over the preceding month. Data is also available at the individual county level. RealtyTrac’s report includes properties in all three phases of foreclosure: Defaults — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auctions — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank).  

August und September gezeigt, dass die Talsohle bei den Wohnungsbauinvestitionen
im vierten Quartal durchschritten werde. Ein Ende der Wohnungsbau-Rezession
stehe wahrscheinlich kurz bevor.

   Bei den Hypothekenkrediten verweist die Bank auf die nicht für
Wohnungsbauinvestitionen verwendeten Hypothekenkredite der privaten Haushalte,
die so genannten Mortgage Equity Withdrawals (MEW). Dieser "Einkommenseffekt"
aus den MEW habe sich im zweiten Quartal 2006 deutlich abgekühlt. Zwar sei davon
auszugehen, dass die MEW in den kommenden Quartalen durchaus leicht in den
negativen Bereich fallen können. Gegen eine weitergehende Abschwächung der MEW
spreche allerdings der Rückgang der US-Hypothekenzinsen in den vergangen
Monaten. Daher sei auch hier ein Ende der Belastungsphase absehbar.

EINFLUSS DES IMMOBILIENVERMÖGENS

   Mit Blick auf das Immobilienvermögen, das zusammen mit dem Einkommen den
privaten Konsum beeinflusse, rechnet die DekaBank mit einer deutlich schwächeren
Dynamik in den nächsten Quartalen. Gleichwohl dürften die Bremseffekte, die
selbst bei einem starken Rückgang des Immobilienvermögens auftreten könnten,
nicht so dramatisch ausfallen wie vielfach behauptet. Kompensierend wirke
insbesondere ein steigendes Finanzvermögen./bf/jha/