Pfizer - zu Unrecht im Keller

Fuzzi (von 25 auf 27): Nein, PFE wird, wenn sich der Rummel um die Blockbuster legt, wieder seinen historisches KGV von mindestens 16 erreichen. Der Gewinn liegt bei 2,12 USD und wird eher noch etwas steigen. 2,12 X 16 = 33,92 USD - das ist bezogen auf 25 USD ein Plus von 36 %. Dazu gibt es 3 % Div., die wegen der Cash-Vorräte von 18 Mrd. Dollar (fast halb so viel wie einst Microsoft!) auch gesichert ist. Im Gegensatz zu Merck drohen im unwahrscheinlichen Fall eines Rückzugs von Celebrex/Vioxx auch keine massiven Schadensersatzklagen (bei Merck wegen "böswilligen Verschweigens bekannter Risiken").

Kurzum: Fundamental finde ich PFE beim jetzigen Kurs interessant, möge das Messer fallen, wie es mag.

Die Situation des US-Konzerns ist in mancher Hinsicht typisch für die gesamte Branche: Während sich das Geschäft mit einem globalen Marktwachstum von etwa sieben Prozent weiterhin relativ solide entwickelt, werden Perspektiven und Börsenbewertungen durch die Furcht vor Patentabläufen und politischen Eingriffen belastet. Analysten von Goldman Sachs sprechen mit Blick auf Patentrisiken und steigenden Sicherheitsanforderungen von einem "zweischneidigen Damoklesschwert", das über der Branche schwebt.

Die Quartalszahlen der Unternehmen dürften dagegen überwiegend positiv ausfallen. Zweistellige Wachstumsraten werden unter anderem für Roche, Amgen, Johnson & Johnson sowie für die Schweizer Novartis- Gruppe erwartet, die heute ihre Zahlen publiziert. Wesentlich ungünstiger dürfte es dagegen für den US- Konzern Merck & Co aussehen, der die Rücknahme seines Schmerzmittels Vioxx zu verkraften hat.

Pfizer konnte unterdessen den Umsatz im vierten Quartal um sieben Prozent auf 14,9 Mrd. Dollar steigern und den Reingewinn mehr als vervierfachen, auf 2,8 Mrd. Dollar.

Zum Umsatzplus hat die Abwertung des Dollars mit drei Prozentpunkten beigetragen. Die Ertragsrechnung wird dagegen weiterhin durch die Integration der 2003 erworbenen Pharmacia erheblich verzerrt. Bereinigt um diverse Sonderfaktoren im Zusammenhang mit der Übernahme stieg der Gewinn nach Angaben von Pfizer um 16 Prozent auf 4,4 Mrd. Dollar. Er blieb damit leicht hinter den Erwartungen der meisten Analysten zurück. Dennoch notierte die Aktie des Pharmariesen gestern nahezu unverändert.

Im Gesamtjahr stieg der bereinigte Gewinn um ein Drittel auf gut 16 Mrd. Dollar. Neben der Kostensenkung im Zuge der Pharmacia-Übernahme trug dazu vor allem der anhaltende Erfolg des Cholesterinsenkers Lipitor bei. Das mit Abstand umsatzstärkste Medikament der Welt verbuchte im Gesamtjahr Erlöse von 10,8 Mrd. Dollar und legte allein im 4. Quartal um fast ein Viertel auf 3,2 Mrd. Dollar zu.

Sehr starke Zuwächse verbuchten ferner die Schmerzmittel Celebrex und Bextra, die zu der umstrittenen Wirkstoffgruppe der Coxibe gehören. Pfizer profitierte dabei offenbar noch davon, dass das Konkurrenzprodukt Vioxx Ende September auf Grund erhöhter Herzkreislauf-Risiken vom Markt genommen werden musste.

Doch dürfte sich die Situation schon im laufenden Jahr drastisch ändern, nachdem eine Studie vor wenigen Wochen auch für das Pfizer-Medikament Celebrex erhöhte Herzinfarktrisiken offenbart hat. Die gesamte Wirkstoffgruppe der so genannten Cox-2-Blocker ist damit zusätzlich unter Beschuss geraten und dürfte nach Erwartung der meisten Fachleute 2005 deutliche Umsatzeinbußen verzeichnen. Analysten gehen davon aus, dass die Zulassungsbehörden den Einsatz der Mittel deutlich einschränken werden. [KOMMENTAR: Die Mittel bleiben also offenbar am Markt, sonst gäbe es nichts einzuschränken - AL. ] Die europäische Arzneimittelbehörde Emea befasst sich in dieser Woche mit der Frage. Die US-Behörde FDA will Mitte Februar über das weitere Vorgehen beraten.

Neben der Debatte um die Coxibe muss Pfizer in diesem Jahr den Patentablauf bei wichtigen Umsatzträgern wie dem Antibiotikum Zithromax und dem Antidepressionsmittel Zoloft verkraften. 2006 verliert der Bestseller Norvasc, ein Mittel gegen Bluthochdruck, den Patentschutz. Ungeachtet weiterer Kostensenkungen im Zuge der Integration von Pharmacia rechnen Analysten für die kommenden Jahre nur noch mit stagnierenden Erträgen.

On December 17, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and Pfizer reported new information on two separate long-term colorectal cancer prevention studies of patients treated with high doses of CELEBREX for more than two years.

The NCI reported that the first study showed a significant increase in cardiovascular risk (such as heart attack and stroke) with CELEBREX at 400mg and 800mg per day (2x to 4x the common arthritis dose) compared to placebo (sugar pill).1 The findings are different in the second study that reported no difference in cardiovascular risk between CELEBREX at 400mg per day and placebo.1 Pfizer will evaluate this new safety information.

On December 20, the National Institutes of Health reported new information from a long-term Alzheimer's prevention study investigating CELEBREX (400mg per day) and the over-the-counter dose of naproxen (440mg per day) versus placebo for up to three years. In a preliminary analysis of this study, there was no significant increase in cardiovascular risk for patients on CELEBREX compared to placebo, however there was an apparent increase in risk for patients on naproxen compared to placebo.

What Do These Findings Mean?

Pfizer considers this new safety information important. The new information needs to be put in context with the existing CELEBREX data, which have been gathered over the past 10 years. The cardiovascular safety of CELEBREX has been studied based on data in 15 completed clinical studies, representing nearly 30,000 patients treated up to one year. In this body of data, there was no significant increase in cardiovascular risk in patients taking CELEBREX as compared to conventional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or placebo, according to a cardiovascular endpoint.

How Does This Compare to Other Arthritis Medicines?

Despite being widely used for decades, NSAIDs have not been evaluated for cardiovascular safety in similar large, multi-year studies with the exception of the over-the-counter dose of naproxen used in the long-term Alzheimer’s study described above. It is important to remember that all medicines have risks and benefits.

What Should I Do If I Am Taking CELEBREX?

As always, you should talk with your physician about the risks and benefits of treatment options. Physicians are recommended to consider all available therapies when choosing a medicine for patients. CELEBREX remains one of these options for arthritis and pain treatment at the lowest effective dose for appropriate patients.

Our Commitment

Pfizer is committed to providing important information about its medicines to physicians and patients in a timely fashion. Pfizer stands behind CELEBREX. CELEBREX is an important medicine for millions of people with arthritis. Pfizer is taking immediate steps to evaluate this new safety data and will work closely with the FDA and the medical community to fully understand what this means for people taking CELEBREX.

Additional Important Information.

Prescription CELEBREX is not for everyone. People with aspirin-sensitive asthma or allergic reactions due to aspirin or other arthritis medicines or certain drugs called sulfonamides should not take CELEBREX. In rare cases, serious stomach problems such as bleeding can occur without warning. The most common side effects in clinical trials were indigestion, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. CELEBREX should not be taken in late pregnancy. Tell your doctor if you have kidney or liver problems.


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Pfizer Acted Responsibly In Sharing Celebrex Alzheimer's Study Data With FDA
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Public Citizen Charge is Misleading and Unfair to Patients
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NEW YORK, February 1 -- Pfizer Inc said today that it remains confident in its COX-2 medicines as important treatment options for arthritis patients and that it has acted responsibly in sharing all appropriate data with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Pfizer vigorously refutes claims by Public Citizen that safety data from a 1999 Celebrex study in Alzheimer's patients were "undisclosed." The study was monitored by an independent panel of safety experts, an abstract of the results was presented at a scientific congress in 2000, and the completed study report was submitted to the FDA in June 2001.

"Pfizer acted responsibly in sharing this information in a timely manner with the FDA," said Dr. Joseph Feczko, Pfizer president of worldwide development.

"Public Citizen’s cherry-picking of data is alarmist and misconceived,” he said. “It is not possible to draw clinically meaningful cardiovascular conclusions from this study alone given the variations in patients’ medical history, their advanced age and other significant study limitations. This flawed use of data is misleading and unfair to a reasoned scientific discussion of these issues.”

In fact, this single study is only one piece of information in the vast amount of clinical trial and other data supporting the safety of Celebrex in arthritis patients.

The 12-month study, which was designed to assess the potential of Celebrex in slowing Alzheimer's disease progression, showed that Celebrex did not significantly influence the course of the disease.

While patients who received Celebrex experienced more cardiovascular events versus placebo, there was a large difference in the underlying cardiovascular risk profile of the patients assigned to Celebrex treatment compared with those who received placebo. For example, more patients assigned to Celebrex had hypertension, diabetes, took aspirin or had undergone a previous heart by-pass surgery than those patients taking placebo. Even Public Citizen acknowledged the study "was not large enough to demonstrate a statistically significant increase in any individual serious cardiovascular event."

On February 16, an FDA advisory committee will begin a rigorous scientific evaluation of the risks and benefits of all COX-2 medicines, including Celebrex and Bextra. Pfizer has provided the agency with an extensive analysis of all available safety data for its COX-2 medicines and continues to cooperate fully with worldwide regulatory authorities.

“The FDA advisory meeting is the appropriate forum for these important public health issues to be fully addressed and put into context,” Dr. Feczko said.

Similarly, the dividend yield of PFE is higher now in relative (and also in absolute terms) than it was 10 years ago. At the start of 1995 the dividend yield of PFE was 2.5 percent, then fractionally below the S&P 500 index dividend yield. The current dividend yield on PFE is 3.1 percent, compared to only 1.8 percent for the S&P 500.

PFE sold off so severely that it's now among the top 10 dividend-yielding companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the first time in at least nine years. It's been my informal observation that when well-established companies who have normally not been among the top dividend yielding stocks in the Dow fall into this group, they've become attractive long-term investments.

Why should PFE be so much less expensive than it used to be? There is no shortage of stories: loss of sales and possible legal exposure from Celebrex, the increased likelihood of eventual drug price controls now that Medicare covers prescriptions, the current absence of potential blockbuster drugs in the industry pipelines etc.

The real question is whether the current stock price has adequately discounted all the bad news scenarios, in which case it might be safe to buy now, or whether the stock is vulnerable to further negative surprises.

Recommendation: Buy PFE below $25/share.

The price risk of PFE at under $25 a share appears contained (although it still could be significant).

When the news broke that Celebrex was associated with increased cardiovascular risks among patients in a cancer study taking above-normal doses, PFE traded to a low of $21.99 before rebounding to close that same day at $25.75 per share.

The interpretation is that $22 a share represented a level of panic selling on that day. Unless there is a fresh, unpleasant surprise that worsens the current outlook for the company, it seems improbable that the stock will again fall that low.

More reassuringly, PFE stock has recently twice closed below $24.30 a share (on Dec. 20 and again on Jan. 24). In both cases the price recovered in the near term.

The long-term trend line that has represented a floor under PFE's stock price since 1980 has been rising at a rate of 14.3 percent a year compounded, and now extrapolates a long term potential low at $19/share.

Although I do not expect PFE to fall back to trend in the near future, this trend line appears to represent a potential limit to price risk for roughly the next two years. (I do not, however, expect PFE to resume its long-term price appreciation of over 14 percent a year, so eventually the trend line will lose its relevance.)

If PFE does eventually bottom out between $24 to $25 a share, as I expect, then we could see a rally back to $27 a share in the first half of 2005. Nonetheless, I recommend PFE as a long-term income-producing investment.

Zaks projects earnings growth of 10.9 percent a year for the next five years, which should roughly be matched by dividend growth -- nearly twice the projected growth rate of the S&P 500.

Even if this turns out to be too optimistic, there's a large margin of error for the investor at current prices. Assuming dividends and earnings grow at less than half of Zaks' projections, 5 percent a year, the dividend income over the next ten years would increase beyond the likely rate of inflation.

Bei Pfizer sind die Shorts heftig am covern: Es gab zwei gute News, geplante Entlassungen um bis zu 30 % und ein neues, im Stufe-3-Test hochwirksames Medikament gegen Magenkrebs, das nun in 7 Monaten auf den Markt kommen soll. Hinzu kommen die Erklärungen des CEOs Kinney, Celebrex nach Re-Evaluation von 41 internen Studien am Markt lassen zu wollen (Posting 141).

In den USA hatte der "Short-Advisor", ein zahlungspflichtiger Börsendienst
(www.thestreet.com/k/sr/index.html),
Pfizer zum Shorten empfohlen (reichlich spät übrigens, das wäre bei 36 Dollar im Sommer interessanter gewesen). All diese Shorts sehen den Kurs nun wegen der fundamental guten News nach oben schießen. Mal sehen, wie lange sie das aushalten ;-)

Lehman hat Pfizer gestern auf "overweight" belassen - und rechnet wegen der Job-
Streichungen mit bis zu 15 cents mehr Gewinn pro Aktie. Bezogen auf die bisherige Konsensschätzung von 2,12 Dollar Gewinn pro Aktie für 2005 sind das rund 7 % mehr.
Geht diese Schätzung auf, ist für 2005 mit 2,27 USD zu rechnen - was ein derzeitiges
KGV von 25,60/2,27 USD = 11,2 ergibt. Nicht schlecht für einen Dow-Jones-Wert mit 3 %
Dividende, der seit 1995 jährliche Wachstumsraten um 20 % erzielt hat.

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Shares Rise on Pfizer Gain and Stronger Chip Outlook
By REUTERS

Published: February 9, 2005

By Reuters

...Pfizer gained 64 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $25.55. A research note from Lehman Brothers said Pfizer was considering reducing its sales force by up to 30 percent, possibly adding 15 cents to 18 cents a share in profit for 2005.

Pfizer, the world's largest drug maker, said later in the day that it was considering job cuts. Separately, the company said its experimental drug for a deadly form of stomach cancer proved safe and effective in a late-stage trial.

Zu Celebrex: Dass die Pfizer-Aktie vor der FDA-Konferenz, die ab Mittwoch für drei Tage stattfindet und auf der die Gefahren von COX-2-Hemmern diskutiert werden, steigt, ist ein gutes Zeichen. Ernsthaft scheint niemand damit zu rechnen, dass Celebrex vom Markt genommen werden muss. Der Markt hasst Unsicherheit, und die wird nach Ablauf der Konferenz beseitigt sein. Weiter den Kurs nach oben treiben wird Pfizers Analysten-Konferenz Anfang April, bei der die Einsparungsmaßnahmen durch Entlassungen (10 % bis 30 % der Belegschaft) offiziell verkündet werden. Diese Einsparungen werden die Umsatzrückgänge aufgrund der Patentabläufe überkompensieren, so dass die Gewinne unterm Strich steigen. Ich rechne damit, dass Pfizer im Laufe von 12 Monaten wieder bei 33 bis 35 Dollar steht, was einem KGV von 16 entspricht (= historischer Mittelwert).

Diese Info ist von Pfizers Webseite:

Pfizer Declares a 19-Cent First-Quarter, 2005, Dividend
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Dividend Increases for 38th Consecutive Year

NEW YORK, December 13 -- The board of directors of Pfizer Inc today declared a 19-cent dividend on the company’s common stock for the first quarter of 2005. The dividend is payable on March 8, 2005 to shareholders of record on February 11, 2005. The new 19-cent dividend represents a 12 percent increase over the 2004 quarterly dividend. In 2004, Pfizer dividend payments totaled 68 cents a share, consisting of four quarterly payments of 17 cents. The first-quarter 2005 cash dividend will be the 265th consecutive quarterly dividend paid by Pfizer, and 2005 will mark the 38th consecutive year of annual dividend increases for Pfizer shareholders.

Merck withdrew Vioxx in September by Merck after studies linked long-term use of the drug to cardiovascular risks. Pfizers Celebrex and Bextra, are the only COX-2 type drugs still on the US market.

Pfizer and Merck said they had yet to analyze the Wellpoint research.

Wellpoint's study, the third to examine the risks of COX-2 inhibitors, was released today, just as the FDA began three days of public hearings to determine if Bextra and Celebrex should also be withdrawn from the market.

An FDA-appointed committee of independent experts will hear from physicians, pharmaceutical companies, consumer groups and heart attack victims and their relatives before they issue recommendations that will lead to an FDA decision a few weeks later.