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According to Israeli army sources, two hundred and fifty Palestinians have been killed, one thousand five hundred have been arrested, and a further three thousand were detained for interrogation. According to an army intelligence source, seventy per cent of top, wanted Palestinians have been detained or killed. By one measure, only eight of a list of thirty-three wanted Palestinians are still at large.
Other Israeli sources suggest a very different picture, with many of those targeted slipping away.. Nor is it clear that Israeli intelligence was particularly good at identifying the most significant people. There has been little military action in Hebron, a centre of Palestinian resistance, partly because the presence of controversial Jewish settlements in the heart of the city makes military operations difficult.
Independent assessments are difficult to make, but it has to be remembered that the Israeli action was cumulative – spreading across the West Bank over more than two weeks. The earlier actions made it clear that one of the purposes was to detain or kill militia leaders, so it follows that in the later incursions there was plenty of time for key leaders to get away.
More significantly, almost all of the Hamas leadership is concentrated in Gaza, which has so far been left out of the military action. There have also been surprisingly few reports of Israeli soldiers identifying and destroying arms dumps or explosives factories, and little effort has been made to demonstrate such success. Furthermore, suicide bombings continued even during the military occupation, with devastating incidents in Haifa, Jerusalem and in the Jenin refugee camp itself.
Palestinian sources are adamant that any disruption of their paramilitary actions will be temporary at most. The Washington Post quoted one analyst, Samir Rantisi: “The Israelis can capture ten activists, but the end result is there are a hundred who crop up. And those have learned the lessons of the previous ten.” As one of Sharon’s advisors, Danny Ayalon, acknowledged: “We have a few hundred that are captured members. However, we didn’t touch at all the other tens of thousands, with their weapons, who are still in place”.
Finally, and most significant of all, has been the change in the status of Yassir Arafat. Far from being sidelined, his position appears to have been substantially strengthened. When one analyses this, it is quite remarkable, and almost certainly unexpected as far as Sharon’s advisers are concerned.
After four weeks of military action, any independent analysis is forced to conclude that Sharon has not increased Israel’s safety or security. The evidence is actually to the contrary. Arafat is, at least for the time being, in a stronger international position than a month ago and Israel’s international standing has been substantially damaged, made worse by the current opposition to the UN investigation in Jenin. Palestinian resolve appears to have been strengthened, in spite of the casualties and destruction, suicide bombings have continued, and very many young Palestinians have been further radicalised.
The Israelis have refrained, so far, from military action in Hebron, and action in Gaza has been limited. There is an international assumption that Israeli action is now more or less complete, and that a slow withdrawal will take place – the end of Sharon’s “Phase One”. There is a further assumption that “Phase Two” will be some kind of enforced physical separation of the West Bank Palestinian communities.
In practice, though, the geography of Israeli settlements in the West Bank makes this formidably difficult and, in any case, Israel is so dependent on the water resources of the region that enforced separation would be against its own interests. It would, furthermore, be a tacit admission of defeat for Sharon.
More generally, one substantial effect of the recent Israeli actions has been to increase support for radical Palestinian factions, not least in Hebron but especially in Gaza. Phase Two may therefore actually be a renewed military campaign in both places. There is still little realisation outside of Israel that Sharon is single-minded in his pursuit of control, and heads a government that includes even more hard-line factions and is almost entirely impervious to international opinion.
War in Hebron and Gaza may come anyway, but it will be even more likely if there are further bombs in Israeli cities.
www.opendemocracy.net/forum
Other Israeli sources suggest a very different picture, with many of those targeted slipping away.. Nor is it clear that Israeli intelligence was particularly good at identifying the most significant people. There has been little military action in Hebron, a centre of Palestinian resistance, partly because the presence of controversial Jewish settlements in the heart of the city makes military operations difficult.
Independent assessments are difficult to make, but it has to be remembered that the Israeli action was cumulative – spreading across the West Bank over more than two weeks. The earlier actions made it clear that one of the purposes was to detain or kill militia leaders, so it follows that in the later incursions there was plenty of time for key leaders to get away.
More significantly, almost all of the Hamas leadership is concentrated in Gaza, which has so far been left out of the military action. There have also been surprisingly few reports of Israeli soldiers identifying and destroying arms dumps or explosives factories, and little effort has been made to demonstrate such success. Furthermore, suicide bombings continued even during the military occupation, with devastating incidents in Haifa, Jerusalem and in the Jenin refugee camp itself.
Palestinian sources are adamant that any disruption of their paramilitary actions will be temporary at most. The Washington Post quoted one analyst, Samir Rantisi: “The Israelis can capture ten activists, but the end result is there are a hundred who crop up. And those have learned the lessons of the previous ten.” As one of Sharon’s advisors, Danny Ayalon, acknowledged: “We have a few hundred that are captured members. However, we didn’t touch at all the other tens of thousands, with their weapons, who are still in place”.
Finally, and most significant of all, has been the change in the status of Yassir Arafat. Far from being sidelined, his position appears to have been substantially strengthened. When one analyses this, it is quite remarkable, and almost certainly unexpected as far as Sharon’s advisers are concerned.
After four weeks of military action, any independent analysis is forced to conclude that Sharon has not increased Israel’s safety or security. The evidence is actually to the contrary. Arafat is, at least for the time being, in a stronger international position than a month ago and Israel’s international standing has been substantially damaged, made worse by the current opposition to the UN investigation in Jenin. Palestinian resolve appears to have been strengthened, in spite of the casualties and destruction, suicide bombings have continued, and very many young Palestinians have been further radicalised.
The Israelis have refrained, so far, from military action in Hebron, and action in Gaza has been limited. There is an international assumption that Israeli action is now more or less complete, and that a slow withdrawal will take place – the end of Sharon’s “Phase One”. There is a further assumption that “Phase Two” will be some kind of enforced physical separation of the West Bank Palestinian communities.
In practice, though, the geography of Israeli settlements in the West Bank makes this formidably difficult and, in any case, Israel is so dependent on the water resources of the region that enforced separation would be against its own interests. It would, furthermore, be a tacit admission of defeat for Sharon.
More generally, one substantial effect of the recent Israeli actions has been to increase support for radical Palestinian factions, not least in Hebron but especially in Gaza. Phase Two may therefore actually be a renewed military campaign in both places. There is still little realisation outside of Israel that Sharon is single-minded in his pursuit of control, and heads a government that includes even more hard-line factions and is almost entirely impervious to international opinion.
War in Hebron and Gaza may come anyway, but it will be even more likely if there are further bombs in Israeli cities.
www.opendemocracy.net/forum
