www.hotcopper.com.au/...id=1&tid=1273702&msgid=7163459
Aus HotCopper - Australian Investment Network vom 07.10. (Danke Arriba1 für den Fund). Position 6) ist interessant als Zusammenfassung, ich stelle sie hier vorweg ... nicht wundern, scheint kein geübter 10-Finger-Schreiber. Bei HotCopper als Nichtmitglied einen Moment warten, dann "I agree" bestätigen.
6) Bewertung des Telefoninterviews (siehe Pos 1)
(Zeichenerklärung: b/c = because)
good one Auto
P/E is currently very very attractive :)
i like it b/c its going to produce $$$
i like it because silver futures as i type is going up and up ^ Bullish Signals seen
i like it b/c chairman has a large holding
i like it b/c accumulation going on?
i like it b/c the big players are waiting for an update on the finance details? / resource? reserve ? /upgrade? production costs? how long do we need to wait for all of this?
only guessing but i dont think C/R not on the cards. not the way silver price is going ^ anyway;
imho short term potential of P/E > 5 <10
and to make you smile, go check the silver price and keep refereshing your page! :)
dyor no advice given
the BULL OF FEAR
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: AYN - ALCYONE RESOURCES LTD
Post: 5798474 (Start of thread) Views: 804
Posted: 07/10/10 13:54
Stock Price Sentiment: Buy
Disclosure: Stock Held From: 218.185.xxx.xxx
1) Ok Guys
Put in the call and got the call back form Andrew within 10 minutes - thats the first plus
here is an attempted summary, I was taking notes while speaking and I will try to kist these.
After all the independant analsysis conclusion was MMN simply used a course crusher. this crated the problem that they couldnt get enough silver out of the solution a the solution was best for silver grades of 300 plus not 80-100. This silver recover was at 30-40% resulting in high operating costs of over $20 per oz
Amtec (independant WA Lab - world leading apparently) lab have revealed in their analysis that by using a finer crusher which they have gone with and done the testing and using a Meryl crow circuit recover rates will be plus 90%. Further analysis ongoing
He expects with current silver price a margin of $9-13.
Went through some base case assumptions of processing rates, recovery rates and he come up with a back of the envelope calc of about 1.6 -1.7 million oz silver per annum. Lets use mid point of margin 11 , thats about 18 million per annum base case. He did say in an ealrier par tof the conversation product of about 17-2 million oz so this may have been perhaps his targer vs base case
Theiy are discussing fiancing options , he mentioned many banks have a lot of cash and are offering very good finance deals in both Europe and Australia. They are considering all options. discussed cpa raising and he said it is an option but will need to be asssesed against whats best for the shareholders.
He said Current drillling should increase resource and will most likely increase the measured and indicated part of the resource increasing confidence of reserves. He didnt mention numbers but said he though resource to reserve converstion should be good.
discussed hedging and he said it was dependant on the finance. he said they may hedge as little to cover operating costs but that was unknown at this stage as the funding decision, form where and how much was not made as yet.
Inereating he mentioned that he had worked 12 months on this without pay, highlighting he believed in the project but said he cant give me investment advice
Hope this helps, has given be condifence that even on a base case will be straing on a PE of under 2 at the current SP.
2) Thanks Autosime, very informative. Confirms the earlier posts of yourself and others.
3) Thanks for the update Autosime,
AYN is on a roll. Good to read about your discussion with Andrew. AYN is a long term play for me.
Newminer.
4) Hi all
Thank you for all the thumbs up, specially since my spelling in the post is shocking, just read it now and cringed.
One other thing he did mention that i forgot to detail was that he is confident that there are a few really good silver prospects in the permits, and that the potential for base metals associated with silver and unassociated at depth is also promising. He also said the gold mineralisation is very good for decreasing costs if proven up
All very good imo and hugely leveraged to an increasing silver price
Should be trading at 6-8 cents pre production and around 9-11 post production
5) Autosime, thanks for the information today including the last bit.
6) Bewertung (Zeichenerklärung: b/c = because)
... siehe Anfang!
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