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Irish Economy: The Department of Finance reported Monday evening, an Exchequer surplus of €704m compared with a deficit of €394m in January 2012. While tax revenues were up 3% year on year, the 2013 Exchequer balance benefited from the proceeds of the sale of Contingent Capital notes in Bank of Ireland.
Exchequer debt servicing costs, at €568m in January 2013 were down €200m year-on-year due to a combination of technical and timing factors.
Tax revenues in January 2013 amounted to €3.77bn, an increase of €109m or 3% on the same month in 2012. Adjusting for inflated corporation tax figures in January 2012 and the same month in 2012. Adjusting for inflated corporation tax figures in January 2012 and the earlier than normal receipt of the Health Insurance Levy contribution to stamp duties in January 2013, year-on-year growth of an estimated 5.6% was recorded on an adjusted basis. The amount collected in January represents almost 10% of the annual Budget 2013 target and the Department of Finance said it is broadly consistent with expectations.
Income tax performed strongly and was €127m (10%) up on January 2012. January is traditionally a quiet month for corporation tax and recorded receipts of €19m in the month. This compares to €271m in receipts recorded during the same period last year. However, this year-on-year decrease reflects the impact of the delayed €251m in corporation tax receipts from December 2011 into January 2012. Adjusting for this late payment, CT recorded a marginal decrease in January 2013.
Excise duties, at €319m at end-January, recorded year-on-year growth of €30m (10.3%); VAT, the last of the “big 4” tax-heads, recorded a €16m (0.9%) year-on-year increase in January.
Stamp duties recorded receipts of €233m, an increase of approximately €186m (400%) year-on-year. This increase is primarily a result of a timing issue related to the Health Insurance Levy in respect of policies taken out in the last five months of 2012 – yield of just under €170m - and is expected to level out over the course of the year.
Taken together, the remaining “minor” tax heads - - CAT, CGT and customs - - recorded a year-on-year reduction of approximately €20m combined.
Net expenditure for January 2013 was €3,98bn. The year-on-year increase was 4.1% or €157m.
Net current expenditure for January 2013 was €3,87bn. The year-on-year increase was 7.2% or €259m. The Department said the timing of public service and social welfare paydays is the primary driver of the increase in non expenditure. This is purely a timing issue and will even out over the course of the year. The most significant increase in any of the vote groups was Social Protection which showed a year-on-year increase of 18% (€179m) compared with the same period in 2012.
Net capital expenditure for January 2013 was €108m. Given the one-off nature of much capital expenditure, year-on-year comparisons are not especially helpful, particularly in the first month of the year.
David McNamara, economist at Davy, commented: "Tax receipts in January were up 3% compared to January 2012. The rise was largely accounted for by stronger income tax receipts and one-off stamp duty receipts. Net expenditure was up 4.1% on January 2012 with current expenditure up 7.2%. We await official target numbers from the Department of Finance to compare with the monthly figures, but the underlying January tax returns are up a healthy 5.6% year-on-year (yoy) stripping out exceptionals.
One disappointment is the subdued growth of 0.9% in VAT receipts, reflecting a weak Christmas period. The robust growth in tax returns is a welcome development, but the substantial rise in current expenditure remains a concern following large overspends in Health and Social Protection in 2012."
Peter Vale, tax partner at Grant Thornton commented: “The big positive in the numbers is the 10% increase in income tax receipts over this time last year. This indicates stability in the labour market which is critical if we are to reach the economic growth targets set by the government.
A slight concern is the fact that VAT receipts were a mere 0.9% ahead of last year despite the increase in the VAT rate to 23% from 21% in the comparable period. This is perhaps explained by the relatively weak retail sales over the Christmas period reported last week.
Another interesting figure is the 43% reduction in capital gains tax receipts versus the prior period. The sample size is too small to be conclusive, but there is a chance that the increasing capital gains tax rate has led to a lack of disclosure in some cases. Historically higher capital gains tax rates have been linked with reduced reporting of transactions.
On the spending side, there has been a slight overshoot although it’s probably too early in the year to make judgments about how disciplined the government is being in controlling expenditure in 2013.”
gruss weltumradler, der gegen den strom schwimmende.......
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