17:11 21/11/2011
Share Price Estimates
I thought it worth doing some estimates of share value which cover period from now until the likely results from 10/10. The data in the recent Senergy CPR provide a reasonably solid starting point, and I've used the usual method of valuation – NPV reduced by COS and/or an arbitrary operational discount. The mid-case figure is not too different from MM's 100mmb estimate.
1. Assumptions
Low-case net [DES only] – 35.6mmbs [SLX /CasperW/ShonaW/Beverley]
Mid-case net [DES only] – 115mmbs [ as above ]
Realised Oil Price - $85pb.
NPV10 based on gross [RKH+DES] recoverables – $14pb [mid-case $15pb]
COS [weighted average] – 39%
Operational Risk Discount – 60%
Share base - 342m [post appraisal and Jayne prospects – 392m]
$/£ - 1.60 Acreage value – 10pps.
2. West Flank Prospect Valuation [Low-case]
35.6m x 0.39 = 13.88mmbs x $14pb = $194m x 0.4 = $77.6m.
Divided by 342m shares = $0.23ps/1.60 = £0.14ps
Given the existing SP of 25p, an arbitrary 10p might be added for acreage , giving £0.24p . So with a certain amount of hindsight, this mirrors where we are now quite nicely.
… and using the same method:
3.West Flank Discovery [Low-case] - value = £0.46ps.
Assumes 10/10 success, and 60% operational discount only applied to NPV. Scale of increase limited because of high COS of prospects. Includes 10p acreage.
And again assuming 10/10 success...
4.The mid-case 115mmbs recoverable from the CPR matches fairly well with MM's upper end prediction. With the same price and risk assumptions, but a conservatively increased NPV at $15pb – we get:
115mmbs x $15 x .40 = $690m/342 = $2.02ps = £1.26ps.+10p = £1.36ps.
5.Assuming 10/10 success, and increasing the realised oil price to $100 would raise the mid-case NPV10 to $18pb and give a value of £1.61ps, with low-case up to £0.57ps.[including 10p acreage].
6. Mid-case 115mmbs risked at only 20% to reflect post appraisal booked reserves and assuming an increased sharebase to 392m [covering cost 2 more wells] gives value =£ 2.20ps [oil price $85]; value = £2.64ps [oil price $100] - no additions for other prospects/acreage value included.
7.The Jaynes – the additional prospect value assuming mid-case recoverables approximates to:
100mmbs x $9.5pb* x 0.31[COS] = $295m/392m =$0.75 x 0.4 = £0.19ps
[*Stand-alone NPV10, COS and operational risk applied]
A successful exploration drill would raise this value to £0.61ps
8. Buy out valuation based on midcase 115mmbs Wflank+30mmbs Jaynes approximates to - 145mmbs x $15pb* = $2175/392 = $5.5 =£3.47ps
[* This could obviously be anything between $10/20]
This provides a bit of share pricing context,which should hopefully be a useful yardstick, whether you've already done your own calculations or not.
Good Luck for 10/10 and beyond!
WG. By wool gatherer