(aus dem daily briefing für morgen, www.ingerletter.com)
...And therein lies the rub; as a parabolic technology sector has continued sucking-in everybody in the professional and lay fields, which is a great danger. We ourselves own many tech stocks; but absolutely are not chasing strength, buying clobbered e-tailing stocks that we warned about last year, or charging ahead with leverage and other fairly aggressive (increasingly dangerous) stock strategies here. Again, we've given (and still will) this market every opportunity in the S&P and in the DJIA to try to hold supports, but the action is not encouraging, from what we're seeing right in the face of a nominal Expiration. We'd love to see the big-cap market tone improve; but unless it happens awfully fast, the March S&P will take out 1370 or so, and the risk of an implosion will be front & center once again. And therein lies the necessity of forewarning that "make it or break it" is again on the front burner.
We don't like or relish-in all these repeated stressful moments in the stock market; but obviously these are not something thee or me has much say about; all we can do is analyze what patterns in the market present themselves, and neither be a Pollyanna or a gloomster, in any doctrinaire way, as so many do. The bullish alternative isn't buried for the big Senior Averages; but it clearly isn't happening either, though a lot of money is trying with huge amounts of money to rescue this from the bearish alternative. Basically money is pouring into "what works" stocks, including many of our own; but that's not a formula for comfort when so many other stocks are totally shunned. If this holds and rallies with a successful test of the January 31 lows; that would be terrific. But if it breaks them, bounces and fails, then we'll be staring at the 1340's (the gap from October) fast in the March S&P, with an outside shot at panic overruns that could measure into higher 1200's...
...We're aware and noted last night how now needs to see some broadening on the upside, which basically nobody seems to think is possible for this market; and wasn't so far. We again remind all that it better be, as the alternative would be astoundingly less than pleasant given technical levels increasingly near-at-hand; so for now we'll retreat more from modest interim optimism, as the message from the market requires being on tenterhooks again. Last night we warned that in the wake of the PPI and Greenspeak, we were in a trading mode which might necessitate some quick re-embrace of the downside as and if necessary. At this point it looks like that may be so.
...And therein lies the rub; as a parabolic technology sector has continued sucking-in everybody in the professional and lay fields, which is a great danger. We ourselves own many tech stocks; but absolutely are not chasing strength, buying clobbered e-tailing stocks that we warned about last year, or charging ahead with leverage and other fairly aggressive (increasingly dangerous) stock strategies here. Again, we've given (and still will) this market every opportunity in the S&P and in the DJIA to try to hold supports, but the action is not encouraging, from what we're seeing right in the face of a nominal Expiration. We'd love to see the big-cap market tone improve; but unless it happens awfully fast, the March S&P will take out 1370 or so, and the risk of an implosion will be front & center once again. And therein lies the necessity of forewarning that "make it or break it" is again on the front burner.
We don't like or relish-in all these repeated stressful moments in the stock market; but obviously these are not something thee or me has much say about; all we can do is analyze what patterns in the market present themselves, and neither be a Pollyanna or a gloomster, in any doctrinaire way, as so many do. The bullish alternative isn't buried for the big Senior Averages; but it clearly isn't happening either, though a lot of money is trying with huge amounts of money to rescue this from the bearish alternative. Basically money is pouring into "what works" stocks, including many of our own; but that's not a formula for comfort when so many other stocks are totally shunned. If this holds and rallies with a successful test of the January 31 lows; that would be terrific. But if it breaks them, bounces and fails, then we'll be staring at the 1340's (the gap from October) fast in the March S&P, with an outside shot at panic overruns that could measure into higher 1200's...
...We're aware and noted last night how now needs to see some broadening on the upside, which basically nobody seems to think is possible for this market; and wasn't so far. We again remind all that it better be, as the alternative would be astoundingly less than pleasant given technical levels increasingly near-at-hand; so for now we'll retreat more from modest interim optimism, as the message from the market requires being on tenterhooks again. Last night we warned that in the wake of the PPI and Greenspeak, we were in a trading mode which might necessitate some quick re-embrace of the downside as and if necessary. At this point it looks like that may be so.
