Microsoft - long-Chance

Auch Symantec beispielsweise will in diesem Bereich mit einem neuen Sicherheitspaket punkten und Microsoft nicht ohne Not das Feld überlassen. Das ursprünglich unter dem Codenamen Genesis gehandelte Rundumpaket soll unter der Bezeichnung Norton 360 ab Sommer verfügbar sein, gab das Unternehmen nahezu zeitgleich zu Microsofts Ankündigung bekannt. Und McAfee entwickelt seit mehr als einem Jahr eine vergleichbare, umfassende Lösung unter dem Codenamen Falcon. (dpa) /
www.heise.de/security/news/meldung/7389

Markt für Sicherheitslösungen entwickelt sich zur Goldgrube
100 Prozent Wachstum bis 2010 erwartet

Einen regelrechten Boom für Sicherheitslösungen erwarten die Analysten des Marktforschungsinstituts Radicati. Einer neuen Studie zufolge ist für den Bereich E-Mail-Security von einer Verdopplung der weltweiten Markteinnahmen von derzeit knapp 3,5 Milliarden auf über sechs Milliarden Dollar im Jahr 2010 auszugehen. Die Marktanalysten führen das starke Wachstum auf die stetig steigenden Sicherheitsanforderungen von Unternehmen und Organisationen im Bereich E-Mail-Verkehr zurück. Sowohl Sicherheitsanwendungen als auch Dienstleistungen würden dabei eine entscheidende Rolle spielen, so Radicati.
Aufgrund der ständig wachsenden Sicherheitsbedrohungen im Bereich E-Mail-Phishing und Spam vertrauen Unternehmen zunehmend auf multiple Sicherheitslösungen, die entsprechende Angriffe auf den verschiedenen Netzwerk-Ebenen abwehren sollen. Für die kommenden Jahre erwarten die Branchenexperten folglich auch eine neue Generation von allumfassenden Sicherheitslösungen, die neben herkömmlichen Sicherheitsfeatures auch Funktionen zur Verschlüsselung und Archivierung sowie sicherheitstechnische Unterstützung für Instant Messaging bieten. Als zusätzliche Herausforderung für Unternehmen und Sicherheitsanbieter gilt zukünftig auch die Einhaltung von datenrechtlichen Vorschriften, denen gerade im Bereich E-Mail-Kommunikation eine immer größere Rolle zukommen wird.
Bei Sicherheitsanbieter Symantec kann man die Ergebnisse der Studie nur unterschreiben. "Beim E-Mailing und Instant-Messaging muss heute ein ganzheitlicher Ansatz verfolgt werden, der neben der Sicherheit auch Fragen der Compliance und Archivierung berücksichtigt", erklärt Frank Bunn, Senior Solutions Marketing Manager EMEA von Symantec. Im Bereich Archivierung und Instant Messaging im Allgemeinen ortet Symantec noch riesigen Aufklärungsbedarf und folglich auch entsprechende Marktchancen. "Studien zeigen, dass die Angriffe im Instant-Messaging-Bereich derzeit einen enormen Zuwachs erfahren. Viele Unternehmen unterschätzen diese Gefahr ebenso wie die Tatsache, dass Instant-Messaging-Kommunikation den gleichen gesetzlichen Speicherrichtlinien unterliegt wie die Kommunikation via E-Mail", meint Brunn.
www.zdnet.de/news/security/0,39023046,39144149,00.htm?h

On April 28, Microsoft missed earnings estimates by 2 cents, but shares plummeted 15% on the news, its largest decline in seven years. That knocked more than $30 billion off market cap. To put this in perspective, there are only 87 companies in the S&P 500 that have a market cap greater than $30 billion.

Looking at the numbers, the quarter did not warrant a 15% selloff.

After all, Microsoft's Home and Entertainment revenue was up more than 80% because of strong demand for the Xbox 360 system; Microsoft Business Solutions delivered 21% revenue growth. Total revenue increased 13% to $10.9 billion, and operating income jumped 17% to $3.89 billion. Also, management said that it will deliver even stronger revenue growth next fiscal year.

Ultimately, I'd attribute the drop in Microsoft's shares not to the earnings, but to the cumulative weight of disappointment.

[Das schrieb ich oben auch: Investoren sind Anfang des Jahres - mit Blick auf "Vista", das sich verzögert - zu 27 Dollar rein und verkaufen nun, weil die Aktie fällt und sie sich über den Absturz ärgern. Also reine Charttechnik - A.L.]

Consider that Vista actually was forecast by some analysts to be available in 2003, and now researchers at Gartner, the world's largest information technology research and advisory company, said that Windows Vista may not be broadly available to consumers until sometime between March and June 2007. If the launch is the broad side of a barn, they missed it.

But that's in the past, and in 2007, Vista and Office 2007 will be brought to market. I believe this launch will change investors' perception of Microsoft, as the delay has been an effort to reduce problems at launch that have plagued previous Microsoft products. There is precedent to my expectation, as this would be similar to when Windows XP was released. Windows XP was officially launched on Oct. 25, 2001, just six weeks after Sept. 11.

However, shares of Microsoft defied the market's trend then, rising more than 30% from Oct. 1, 2001, to Dec. 31, 2001, despite turbulent market conditions. Unfortunately, that was the last good news for shares, as Microsoft stock has steadily declined for more than four straight years to its current price of $22.50.

The release of these two products in 2007 could have the same or greater impact, and that should translate into a higher stock price.

Swimming in Lucre

Another factor that makes Microsoft a buy at its 52-week low is its enormous cash hoard. Bears will argue that Microsoft has had this large cash position for some time, and that shares have done nothing but decline. CEO Steve Ballmer further disappointed investors when he announced in April that Microsoft will sit on its $35 billion cash pile instead of returning more money to investors. (In 2004, Microsoft paid out $32 billion in a special dividend of $3 a share.)

But I agree with the strategy because Microsoft paid that special dividend in a much different market environment, highlighted with markedly lower interest rates and not a whisper about inflation. Today, times and opportunities are different.

Inflation is a growing concern, and the Federal Reserve has raised short-term rates to 5% from 1% in hopes of slowing down the economy. As interest rates rise, companies face increased debt costs, leading to higher payments -- or even worse, a lower debt rating.

This makes some companies cheaper, and Microsoft could take advantage of that to become active in the acquisition market. If an opportunity presents itself, using the cash that way would be better than paying out a dividend.

Alternatively, companies that have huge cash positions, such as Microsoft, benefit from higher interest rates. Money market accounts are now paying 5%. Hypothetically, if Microsoft chose to park its $35 billion in a money market account, it would earn $1.75 billion on the investment with very little risk.

Finally, if Microsoft wants to get really aggressive, it could hire Goldman Sachs, whose trading unit returned 40% last quarter, to invest a portion of its cash.

My point is that having cash in the current market environment is more valuable than returning it to shareholders. It may serve a better purpose over the next year or so, during which earnings and the economy are expected to slow.

Microsoft remains well positioned with a full product cycle ready to come to market in 2007. At the current price, I see little downside risk compared with high-beta competitors that are getting trounced in the current marketplace, and if Vista and the new Microsoft Office receive positive grades, we could see a nice run-up in the share price.

Should you invest in Microsoft? If your investment horizon is 12 months to a year and a half, it definately merits a look, as shares could appreciate 25% to 30% from the recent $22.50, or to as high as $30.
 

Bill Gates zieht sich 2008 aus dem Tagesgeschäft zurück
Computerwoche, 16.06.2006 um 00:03 Uhr

Microsoft plant seine Management-Zukunft: Firmengründer Bill Gates kümmert sich ab Juli 2008 verstärkt um seine philanthropischen Aktivitäten. Er bleibt dann zwar noch Chairman, übergibt aber bereits jetzt das Amt des Chief Software Architect an Ray Ozzie.

Gates will sich ab in zwei Jahren vornehmlich um die gemeinsam mit seiner Frau gegründete Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation kümmern, die sich vor allem in den Bereichen Gesundheit und Bildung engagiert und der er den Großteil seines Vermögens übertragen hat. Neben dem Vorsitz des Verwaltungsrates wird Gates Microsoft aber auch nach Mitte 2008 noch bei wichtigen Entwicklungsprojekten beraten.

Neben Notes-Erfinder Ray Ozzie, bislang Chief Technology Officer (CTO), übernimmt auch Craig Mundie ab sofort einen Teil des bisherigen Gates’schen Tagesgeschäfts. Er soll sich als Chief Research and Strategy Officer der Forschungs- und Inkubationsaktivitäten des Redmonder Softwarekonzerns annehmen. Beide Manager sollen während der zweijährigen Übergangsphase eng mit Gates zusammenarbeiten, um einen reibungslosen Übergang sicherzustellen. Mehr Details stehen in der offiziellen Pressemitteilung. (tc)

"Given the two-year transition period and our belief that Gates has been preparing the organization for this through [the] previous reorganization and hiring of Ray Ozzie, we are only slightly concerned about the impact of this announcement," analyst Brent Thill said.

Thill said the beginning of the end of the Gates era at Microsoft may temper morale in the short term but noted that any vacuum created would "give a new generation of leaders a chance to step out of Bill's shadow, evolve new business models, and develop the software and services vision of Windows Live." See commentary by columnist John C. Dvorak.

Friedman Billings Ramsey also left an outperform rating intact on Microsoft and kept a $32 price target on the shares, but it struck a more bullish note while forecasting just a slightly negative impact on the stock in the near term.

The firm said it sees "business as usual" at Microsoft in the wake of the announcement and looks ahead to the balance of the year, when it expects Microsoft to bring clarity to issues that have held the stock back of late, specifically the lack of a detailed strategy and uncertainty regarding the release of its Vista operating system.

"We are happy to see growth accelerating [from fiscal 2005 through fiscal 2007] and believe the decision to reinvest will cause margins to contract in the short term -- but reach an inflection within a year and resume expansion," Friedman said, adding that it expects the analyst day to shed more light on investment strategy.

The succession news prompted a reiteration of an outperform rating from RBC Capital Markets. The firm, which held its $32 price target static, said it continues to like the risk-reward ratio for Microsoft while the stock is sitting near a four-year low.
"With the stock stuck in neutral for some time, a change such as this may help paint a picture of new beginnings for investors," RBC told clients, adding later in its note, "as the company enters its large multiyear product-release cycle and takes market share in its emerging divisions, we believe Microsoft deserves to trade at a multiple near its peer group."

“Just as Microsoft took off in ways I never expected, so has the work of the Foundation, and it's growing rapidly,” Gates, 50, said in a press conference announcing the news. “With the early successes comes the challenge of scaling up and delivering these new approaches to everyone who can benefit.” Gates says he plans to remain Microsoft's chairman indefinitely.

This move is just the latest step in what will end up being a multiyear and multistage period of disengagement. Gates gave up the chief executive job to his longtime friend and partner-in-arms Steve Ballmer six years ago. He seems determined not to upset investors and employees with too sudden a departure from a company so closely identified with him. At the same time, Gates says it's important for folks to get “beyond the myth of one person doing a high percentage of things.”

ROOM FOR FRESH IDEAS.  Indeed, most analysts don't see the move as disruptive. If anything, it's a positive for the company, creating the possibility of fresh thinking in an organization seen by many in the tech industry as being hung up on the past. Gates, more than anyone else, ushered in the era of the PC and the software that went with it. With Microsoft's Windows and Office monopolies, the company became the dominant tech company in the latter part of the 20th century.

But in the last few years, it has become clear that the technology industry is entering a new epoch. The Internet is becoming the focal point -- and Microsoft, with its dependence on packaged software, finds itself chasing upstarts such as Google (GOOG ) in search, Apple (AAPL ) in digital music, and salesforce.com (CRM ) in online business applications.

As much as Gates is identified with the PC era, he's also a lightning rod for many of Microsoft's recent problems. Case in point: The next version of its operating system software, Windows Vista, will arrive for most users next year, more than five years after the previous version of Windows was launched.

RECENT SETBACKS.  Internally, some blamed Gates for pushing developers to do too much, leading the company two years ago to reset plans for the product and scale back its ambition. Microsoft last year belatedly launched a strategy to flood the market with new online services to match or leapfrog those being created rapid-fire by the likes of Google and Yahoo! (YHOO ). Microsoft has often struggled internally because so many decisions need Gates's blessing. The company has reorganized over the years to put less decision making in front of Gates.

As he moves on, Gates is expected to have a tremendously positive effect on the world through his foundation work. “While Gates's impact and role with Microsoft is and will still be very important, his business role pales in comparison to the amount of good he can do as head of the foundation,” says Tim Bajarin, president of tech consultancy Creative Strategies.

At the foundation, Gates says his role will be much like his role as chairman at Microsoft. “I look at that in a lot of ways like the work at Microsoft, you need people there who are experts in their field,” Gates says. He won't, for example, displace Foundation CEO Patty Stonesifer.

TRANSITION PLANS.  The two-year transition will see the ascension of Ray Ozzie, one of three chief technical officers at Microsoft, who will slide into Gates's job as chief software architect (see BW Online, 6/16/06, "What Ozzie Can Do For Microsoft"). Ozzie, who created Lotus Notes, joined Microsoft in April, 2005, when Microsoft acquired a small collaborative software startup he launched called Groove. He immediately takes Gates's title of chief software architect and will become the lead technology visionary for the world's largest software company.

The top execs who've heard of Gates's pending departure are eager to step into their expanded roles, Ballmer says. “It's not like anybody is saying, 'Oh, isn't this a great day,'” Ballmer says. “On the other hand, it's not a bad day. You have a lot guys who say, 'Hey, this is a chance for me to do even more, for me to step up.'”

None more than Ballmer himself. For the first time in his 26 years with Microsoft he will no longer have Gates at his side. “I feel a lot of emotion today, given the incredibly close working relationship Bill and I have,” Ballmer said during the press conference. Gates too seemed to be touched as he reflected back on his decades at the helm of Microsoft. “I don't know what it will feel like not to come in and work my 10 to 11 hours,” he said.

FROM DUO TO SOLOISTS.  Gates first brought up the idea of the shift to Ballmer in 2004. “When Bill first talked to me about the possibility, I was mostly quiet, I think,” says the usually gregarious Ballmer. It was just before he went off on vacation, and it took him some time to ponder the implications. “I wound up saying, 'Yeah, I see how we can make this work',” Ballmer says. "It wouldn't have been my preferred path to being thinking about this on this vacation.”

It wasn't until March, though, that Gates began to get serious about making the move. He told the board in a meeting then that he'd have a decision by mid-June. He made that decision on June 13, just before a conference call with directors.

The duo, possibly the most successful business combination in history, set about deciding how to divvy up Gates's tasks if he followed through with his plans. And Ballmer began to think about how his role as the sole leader of the software giant would change.

On a white board, they scrolled out a list of Gates roles. Ballmer dubbed one of them “expansionistic thinking.” It's the idea of getting Microsoft employees to innovate and create new opportunities for the company. “It might not be obvious who should pick up that opportunity,” Gates says. “He put his name next to that, which I thought was brilliant.”

Durch den sehr hohen und recht konstanten Cashflow bei niedrigem Wachstum hat Microsoft heute eher den Charakter eines Elektrizitätswerkes als eines schnell wachsenden Technologiewertes. Immerhin wird ein Gewinn von 13 Milliarden Dollar erzielt. Schulden gibt es keine, dafür jedoch 35 Milliarden Dollar Bankguthaben und 9 Milliarden Dollar Beteiligungen in Aktien. Dies sind jedenfalls keine Zahlen, die dem Anleger kalten Angstschweiß auf die Stirn treiben, wenn er vom Abgang des Spitzenmannes hört. Bill Gates hat das Feld bestens bestellt.

Im Raum steht ein Vorschlag verschiedener großer Aktionäre, den Gewinn pro Aktie durch einen Aktienrückkauf im Volumen von 50 Milliarden bis 75 Milliarden Dollar zu steigern. Denn dann verteilt sich der Gewinn des Unternehmens auf weniger Aktien und steigt entsprechend. Die Alternative könnte eine oder mehrere Sonderdividenden sein, wie sie im Jahr 2004 schon einmal gezahlt wurde.

Derartige Vorschläge sind, auch wenn sie von sehr einflussreichen Leuten kommen, zunächst natürlich nur eine Spekulation. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer derartigen Maßnahme steigt jedoch mit dem Abgang des sehr konservativen Bill Gates und damit verbunden wahrscheinlich auch einiger anderer ebenfalls sehr konservativer Spitzenleute der alten Garde. Es liegt in der Luft, dass sich in überschaubarer Zeit etwas tut. Denn das viele Geld wird jedenfalls nicht auf der Bank zur Finanzierung neuer Entwicklungen gebraucht. Microsoft hat ein jährliches Entwicklungsbudget von 4,5 Milliarden Dollar, das alle Projekte mehr als abdeckt.

Der vorausschauende Investor wird jetzt auf Signale aus dem Unternehmen oder auch der Bankwelt hören und den Kurs beobachten. Falls der Kurs unter hohen Umsätzen einige Tage lang um etwa ein Prozent am Tag steigt, dürfte etwas im Busch sein und ein Kauf könnte sich lohnen. Bis dahin ist das Investment jedoch nicht interessant.

Künftig sollen PC-Hersteller und Computerbesitzer wieder selbst entscheiden dürfen, welche Programme und Funktionen auf den Rechner geladen werden und beim Start automatisch anspringen. "Wir werden keinen Hersteller, der eine Microsoft-Funktion aus Windows herausnimmt und die eines Konkurrenten einbaut, in irgendeiner Weise daran hindern", versicherte Smith.

Das bedeutet in der Praxis beispielsweise, daß ein Hersteller wie Dell oder HP künftig nicht unbedingt den Internet-Browser von Microsoft, den Internet Explorer, als Standard festlegt, sondern etwa den in Europa zunehmend beliebten Firefox von Mozilla. Auch der Media Player von Microsoft muß demnach nicht immer die erste Lösung sein, sondern könnte bereis ab Werk durch den Real Player ersetzt werden. Darüber hinaus dürfen beliebige andere Betriebssysteme, Anwendungen und Web-Services installiert und vermarktet werden. In der Vergangenheit war Microsoft immer wieder wegen seiner restriktiven Lizenz- und Verkaufspolitik in die Kritik geraten.

Microsoft sagt außerdem zu, seinen Onlinedienst Windows Live unabhängig von Windows zu gestalten. Kunden können also entscheiden, ob sie das Betriebssystem mit oder ohne "Live" nutzen wollten. Auch hat sich Microsoft entschieden, die meisten seiner Patente zur Lizenzierung durch andere Entwickler freizugeben. Lediglich solche, die das Erscheinungsbild von Windows betreffen, sind ausgenommen.

Ein ganz wesentliches Augenmerk gilt der sogenannten Interoperabilität, also der Zusammenarbeit mit anderen Betriebssystemen. Microsoft erkenne an, wie wichtig die Arbeit in Netzwerken sei, sagte Smith hierzu. Daher wolle das Unternehmen verstärkt Industriestandards unterstützen, die einen reibungslosen Austausch mit verschiedensten Systemen garantieren. Zu guter Letzt sollen außerdem Windows-Nutzer jede legale Website besuchen und beliebige konkurrierende Anwendungen oder Web-Services nutzen können. Das Unternehmen verpflichte sich, aus einem solchen Web-Zugang kein Geld zu schlagen, hieß es.

Microsoft steht weltweit im Visier der Wettbewerbshüter. Den wohl härtesten Kampf liefert sich das Unternehmen mit der EU. Im März 2004 verhängte die Brüsseler Behörde gegen Microsoft eine Geldbuße von fast einer halben Mrd. Euro. In der vergangenen Woche kam nochmals ein Zwangsgeld von rund 280 Mio. Euro hinzu.

Artikel erschienen am Fr, 21. Juli 2006

WELT.de 1995 - 2006  

Im Schlussquartal 2005/06 (Ende Juni) sackte Microsofts Gewinn um 24 Prozent auf 2,83 Milliarden Dollar beziehungsweise 0,28 Dollar je Aktie. Der Umsatz stieg im Jahresvergleich um 16 Prozent auf 11,8 Milliarden Dollar. Die Prozesskosten schmälerten den Gewinn um 0,03 Dollar pro Aktie. Ohne diesen Sondereffekt hätte Microsoft 0,31 Dollar je Aktie verdient. Von Thomson Financial befragte Analysten hatten zuvor 0,30 Dollar je Aktie und einen Umsatz von 11,63 Milliarden Dollar vorhergesagt.

Die Branchenexperten hatten ihre Schätzungen bereits gesenkt. Im April hatte Microsoft gewarnt, im vierten Geschäftsquartal und im neuen Geschäftsjahr 2006/07 weniger zu verdienen, als viele Analysten bis dahin erwartet hatten. Der Softwarehersteller begründete dies mit deutlich höheren Investitionen für Forschung und Entwicklung in den Geschäftsgebieten, in denen Microsoft nicht führend sei.

AKTIENRÜCKKÄUFIGE WEGEN ÜBERSCHÜSSIGEN BARMITTELN

Microsofts Finanzchef Chris Liddell begründete die milliardenschweren Aktienrückkäufe mit überschüssigen Barmitteln. Microsoft benötige dieses Geld nicht unmittelbar für Kosten im Zusammenhang mit Rechtsstreitigkeiten oder Übernahmen. Zum 30. Juni, also zum Quartalsende, hatte Microsoft 34,16 Milliarden Dollar an Barmitteln und kurzfristigen Investments. Im abgelaufenen Geschäftsjahr 2005/06 steigerte Microsoft seinen Überschuss auf 12,6 (Vorjahr: 12,25) Milliarden Dollar. Dies waren 1,20 (1,13) Dollar je Aktie. Der Umsatz wuchs auf 44,28 (39,79) Milliarden Dollar.

Analyst David Garrity von Dinosaur Securities sagte, der Windows- und Office-Anbieter Microsoft müsse Investoren weiterhin beweisen, dass es sich gegen stärker werdende Wettbewerber behaupten könne. 'Man kann immer noch das Argument anführen, dass Microsoft ein Technologie-Mischkonzern ist, dessen Hauptverkaufskonzessionen von Wettbewerbern stark attackiert werden', sagte der Experte.

AUSBLICK

Für das laufende Auftaktquartal 2006/07 (Ende September) rechnet Microsoft mit einem Gewinn von 0,30 bis 0,32 Dollar je Aktie. Außerdem will der Softwarehersteller 10,6 bis 10,8 Milliarden Dollar umsetzen. Im Gesamtjahr strebt Microsoft einen Gewinnanstieg auf 1,43 bis 1,47 Dollar je Aktie an. Der Jahresumsatz soll auf 49,7 bis 50,7 Milliarden Dollar zulegen. Diese Gewinnprognose übertrifft die bisherigen Vorhersagen. Finanzchef Liddell betonte aber, dass dies vor allem auf die geplanten Aktienrückkäufe zurückzuführen sei.

In einer Analystenkonferenz sagte Liddell, dass eine weitere Verzögerung der Markteinführung der neuen Windows-Version keine starken Umsatzauswirkungen haben dürfte. Microsofts neues Betriebssystem Windows Vista soll nach derzeitiger Planung ab Januar auf den Verbrauchermarkt kommen. Für diese Produkteinführung sowie für die neue Version des Flaggschiff-Programms Office und eine Marketingkampagne für die verlustbringende Spielekonsole Xbox 360 will Microsoft seine Marketingausgaben um 450 Millionen Dollar aufstocken. Außerdem soll im laufenden Geschäftsjahr etwa eine Milliarde Dollar in die Produktentwicklung fließen. In Online-Services will Microsoft 500 Millionen Dollar stecken, um mit Google   oder Yahoo!   zu konkurrieren./FX/sbi/mf/cs

Quelle: dpa-AFX

News druckenName  Aktuell Diff.% Börse
Google Inc. 387,12 -2,98% NASDAQ
Microsoft Corporation 22,85 -2,35% NASDAQ
Yahoo! Inc. 25,27 +0,28% NASDAQ

Die Marktkapitalisierung von MSFT ist zurzeit 240 Milliarden. Es gibt rund 10 Milliarden Aktien. Für 20 Mrd. Dollar könnten - den Mittelwert der Spanne von 23,58 gerechnet - rund 850 Millionen Aktien zurückgekauft werden. Der free float sinkt dann auf 9,2 Milliarden Aktien. Der Gewinn pro Aktie steigt durch diese Transaktion um den Faktor 10/9,2, also um 8,6 %. Durch den Kurssprung nach den Zahlen von 22,75 auf 23,87 sind davon schon 5 % eingepreist. Rechnerisch verbliebe ein Potential von 3,6 %. Andererseits sind aber auch die Zahlen sehr schwach ausgefallen (17 % Gewinnrückgang). Es könnte daher gut sein, dass die Aktie ohne die Rückkauf-Ankündigung um eben diese 3,6 % gefallen wäre (wie Intel oder noch stärker AMD). Demnach wäre die Aktie JETZT schon fair bewertet.

Über "Tune", die geplante iPod-Konkurrenz, schweigt sich der Artikel aus.

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Technology
Big Dog Softee May Be Chasing Its Tail
By Bob Faulkner
Street Insight Contributor
7/21/2006 1:30 PM EDT

Microsoft (MSFT) announced results for the fourth quarter last night after the close that were just above Street consensus. The stock rose over 4% by noon Friday, but does the surge reflect operating results or its announcement of a $40 billion stock repurchase program?

Microsoft reported revenue of $11.8 billion (up 16% year on year and up 8% quarter on quarter). It also reported EPS of 28 cents (31 cents excluding legal fees). The gross margin was 82%, up 60 basis points sequentially. The operating margin fell 280 basis points to 32.9% as the company ramps spending for product rollouts as well as new development for long-term growth.

Its balance sheet remains among the strongest of any company. Cash from operations was $3.3 billion, with cash down about $650 million after $4 billion in share repurchases. Accounts receivable rose $2.5 billion, with days sales outstanding bulging 15 days to 71 days. Historically, receivables spike in the fourth quarter. But comparing these results with those of past years shows that this is certainly the largest gain on my model. Surprisingly, no one on the call said a word about it.

As was the case last quarter, the top line was led by the home-entertainment division. Revenue rose 86% year on year because of stronger shipments of the Xbox 360. The server business gained 18%, followed by business solutions at 16% and client up a respectable 12%. The unearned-revenue balance increased 12% (above expectations), with booked-but-not-billed exceeding $9 billion once again. Total growth in bookings was 25%.

In addition to the results, the company also announced intentions to acquire up to $40 billion in stock. Some $20 billion will come via a Dutch auction commencing Friday and running through Aug. 17. Another $20 billion will come via share repurchases in the open market as authorized by the board.

Overall, management trimmed near-term revenue guidance but expanded revenue and earnings guidance for fiscal 2007. This breaks down as follows:

   * Guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2007 is for revenue to range from $10.6 billion to $10.8 billion. This is a bit below current expectations of $11.0 billion.

   * Management expects GAAP EPS in the first quarter to range from 30 cents to 32 cents, which is in line with expectations of 31 cents.

   * For the full fiscal year, Microsoft expects revenue to be in the range of $49.7 billion to $50.7 billion. This is slightly above expectations of $49.7 billion.

   * Full-year earnings on a GAAP basis should range from $1.43 to $1.47 a share, which is above current consensus of $1.40 per share.

Buybacks and Earnings Quality

The stock spiked nearly 6% in after-hours trading Thursday night, but I'm left with two key issues to ponder amid the euphoria:

   * The change of a revenue-recognition policy implemented in the quarter within the OEM segment added 2% to top-line growth ($180 million) and 2 cents to EPS. Remember, revenue can be deferred, but the expenses can't. Strangely, not one person asked about it during the Q&A.

   * Second, the Dutch auction will add several cents to EPS in the first quarter of fiscal 2007. And the repurchase program will continue to boost EPS during the remainder of the fiscal year.

We can't know if the after-hours action was a reaction to "good numbers" or a reaction to the buyback announcement. Or maybe it was just a relief rally. For now, investors should just sit back and enjoy it -- maybe Mr. Softee is on a roll.

Road Full of Potholes

Nonetheless, it's not all sunshine and laughter for the company. Just as some anticipated that Microsoft was on the cusp of a period of sustained growth, major product delays pushed that inflection point out again. First it was the consumer version of Vista, then it was Office 2007 (which will likely require a reduction in prior 2007 guidance).

Most recently, the public commentary on Vista (consumer version) suggested to some that the market was being prepped for another delay. Add to that the well-documented weakness in the PC business, and it seemed like we had a perfect setting for a weak quarter followed by an estimate reduction for next year. That didn't happen, of course. Aggravating the product issues are the continued battle with the EU as well as the increasing competitive friction with Google (GOOG) .

Microsoft began migrating its commercial customers to an annuity model several years ago for the purposes of creating a smoother, more predictable revenue stream. Inherent in that model is lower pricing (for longer contracts) and an increasing amount of revenue for new-product releases (viz., Vista and Office 2007) coming off the balance sheet. In essence, they're part of the annuity, so they don't create revenue growth spikes as in the days of yore. It falls to the consumer businesses to generate the icing for the growth cake, and right now that does not look to be in the cards.

A few days ago, management indicated that it would again redefine its business segments for reporting purposes beginning in the first quarter of 2007. Sometimes I think companies do this to muddy the waters and prevent any long-term comparisons. If it were really being done so that investors would "better understand" the business, then they'd provide us with five or more years of history in which to better understand the context of the current change. But they don't, do they?

The bottom line is that it's hell being the big dog on the block. Not only does everyone want a piece of your action, it also gets increasingly difficult to move the needle. As management has been fond of highlighting, just to grow 10% necessitates adding more than $4 billion in revenue. And how many software companies do you know that have $4 billion in revenue? That's been Microsoft's reality for years, and it has manifested itself in the company's stock price and valuation. And realistically, I don't see that changing much.