Selbst Goldman Sachs belässt es bei einem strong-buy
OAO Sberbank (SBER) will probably jump 84 percent over the next 12 months while VTB Group (VTBR) is projected to decline 27 percent in London, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sberbank, Russias biggest lender, has climbed 7.8 percent this year through Jan. 23 in London as VTB tumbled 13 percent.
Sberbank, which is trading near the cheapest valuation since 2009, has a track record of recovering bad debt and will benefit from government support, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this month as it reiterated a buy.
When you compare their asset quality, VTB looks much worse than Sberbank, Ivan Kachkovski, a banking analyst at Aton Capital in Moscow who has a sell rating for both lenders, said by phone on Jan. 21. VTB has had too much appetite for risk in various segments such as consumer lending, while Sberbank managed to put much more emphasis on value creation.
While Russias financial crisis is negative for all the countrys banks, Sberbank stands to benefit from its status as the nations biggest lender, Goldman analyst Dmitry Trembovolsky said in a note dated Jan. 8. Russian companies will probably turn to Sberbank for financing, and the bank will benefit from a state plan to recapitalize lenders, he said.
Sberbank has always been a more reliable company with a better risk profile, a good track record in terms of making money and delivery on strategy, Olga Naydenova, an analyst at BCS Financial Corp. in Moscow, said on Jan. 23. Analysts expect that at some point this year, Sberbanks stronger fundamentals will prevail.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-25/...rge-on-bad-loan-bets.html