Vorab Dank an Lea für die Antwort.
Zu meinen oben angeführten Bedenken bzgl. des Banken-Sektors hier anbei ein aktuelles Statement der allseits bekannten Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s. Auch S&P zeichnet kein allzu rosiges Bild für den Sektor, eine härtere Landung der Groß-Banken, welche u.a. durch die Subprime-Krise sowie durch riskante kreditgehebelte Firmenübernahmen (hier leveraged finance markets) zustande kommen könnte, sei weiterhin möglich. Die dahingehenden Risikoaversionen der Investoren werden aktuell zunehmend, sprich hier auch zuungunsten der Banken, eingepreist.
S&P paints a gloomy picture for big banks
Global banks are well-placed to withstand the weakening in credit markets but could face a squeeze on revenues if the situation worsens, according to a report Monday by Standard & Poor's, the ratings agency.
S&P warns there is "no room for complacency" and says ratings will come under pressure if there is a harder landing in the leveraged finance market. The "golden age of leveraged finance volumes and returns" is now at an end, it adds.
Several takeover deals have hit problems recently as investors avoid leveraged buy-outs in the wake of the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market.
Banks suddenly find it harder to syndicate tens of billions of dollars of debt for deals such as the takeovers of Chrysler and Alliance-Boots. Cadbury (NYSE:CSG)-Schweppes has delayed the £7bn ($14bn) sale of its US drinks arm.
S&P says an upturn in defaults "cannot be far away". Banks could - if the situation worsens - see "sizeable losses" relative to earnings and capital. In terms of revenues, they will no longer receive such substantial underwriting fees from leveraged finance activity.
Banks may also face litigation from investors, according to Richard Barnes, author of the S&P report. His comments follow a warning by Peter Wuffli, former chief executive of UBS, that the leveraged finance boom could drag banks into litigation if the cycle turned.
S&P says the leveraged finance market had been "ripe for a correction" with "frothy" underwriting criteria, and new issuance skewed towards higher-risk assets. But the jury is out on whether the correction marks a return to rational pricing or a downturn.
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