Sofern die Übernahme abgewickelt wird (Einwand # 204 von kicky ist berechtigt und beleuchtet die politische Seite!), besteht das neue Unternehmen Uranium One auf die MK gesehen zu 60 % aus Urasia-Werten.
Zu den bereits bekannten Uran-Abbau-Minen der Urasia in Kasachstan kämen dann die Minen u. a. in Süd-Afrika und Australien. Bereits im ersten Quartal 2008 sollen dann 5 Minen 7 Mio Pfund Uran pro Jahr produzieren, wobei den durchschnittlichen Abbaukosten von 10 bis 12 USD Einnahmen von mindestens 75,00 USD/Pfund gegenüber stehen.
Die Einnahmen sind durch Absatzverträge gesichert, die vor kurzem auf neuem Preisniveau sowohl von Urasia als auch von SXR abgeschlossen wurden.
"For some the Cigar Lake fiasco has become a blessing. On January 11th, UrAsia Energy announced a sales contract with a “major North American utility.” According to the company’s news release, approximately four million pounds of U3O8 have been offered for delivery over a five-year period from the Akdala uranium mine in Kazakhstan. UrAsia has a 70-percent interest in the joint venture, which wholly owns the mine.
Because of the recent surge in the spot uranium price, the contract includes market-related pricing with a floor price protection at the weekly spot price indicator of US$72/pound. Of course, over the course of the next few years, the utility may be forced to pay more for the same uranium but UrAsia is guaranteed this floor price.
A day earlier, SXR Uranium One announced further sales contracts from the company’s Dominion uranium/gold project in South Africa. Four new contracts offering 3.2 million pounds of U3O8 for delivery between 2008 and 2012 not only include escalating floor price protection but are also uncapped. Two months earlier, SXR had announced its first sales contract with a “western world utility” offering 1.5 million pounds for delivery between 2008 and 2012. The lion’s share of Dominion uranium production has yet to be negotiated.
Because of the Cigar Lake flooding, utilities now contracting with UrAsia and SXR have been forced to pay about $150 million more for the 8.7 million pounds of uranium oxide than they might have paid on October 20, 2006. Because of the escalating floor price protection, the final penalty could surpass $200 million – just because utilities refuse to believe the uranium price should be ‘this high.’ In October, Sprott Asset Management’s Kevin Bambrough likened the mood between uranium buyers and sellers to a poker game.
A year ago, U.S. utilities and others could have committed to those 8.7 million pounds for about $250 to $400 million less than what they might ultimately pay for this same U3O8. And the next generation of near-term uranium producers, several companies which were discussed in StockInterview’s “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market” (Click to bookstore), are likely to become the next big winners. Right now, the sellers are holding the winning hand. Unless Cameco offers some relief, the utilities’ bluff for lower prices has continued to penalize their shareholders.
As SXR’s Chief Executive Neal Froneman told one news service late this past week, “I would like someone to tell me how you can get a better contract than that!”
Unter diesen Voraussetzungen erscheint mir das Potential für SXR aus Sicht von 12 bis 24 Monaten immer noch sehr gut, noch längerfristig gesehen ist ein Uran-Wert im Depot sowieso mehr als sinnvoll. Die Uran-Nachfrage wird vermutlich zu noch höheren Uran-Preisen führen, der Boom ist noch nicht vorbei, zumindest nicht bei den Produzenten, bei den vielen Explorern wäre ich sehr vorsichtig.
Was die Übernahme als solches betrifft: wenn man als UrAsia-Aktionär das Übernahmeangebot nicht wahrnimmt, kann man auf einen weiteren Kurszuschlag spekulieren... bis hin zum vielleicht möglichen Squeeze Out. Sollte die Übernahme aus welchen Gründen auch immer nicht über die Bühne gehen, zahlt Urasia übrigens eine 90-Mio-USD-Strafe an SXR...
Aton Capital ist der Meinung, dass der Deal für die Urasia-Aktionäre positiv zu werten ist:
Uranium One buys UrAsia Energy for CAD7.05/share
Uranium One and UrAsia Energy have agreed that Uranium One is to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Urasia, creating a globally diversified uranium producer with assets in Australia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, the US and Canada, and a combined market capitalization of about $4.4bn.
UrAsia shareholders are to receive 0.45 common shares of Uranium One for each common share of UrAsia. Based on Uranium One's last closing price of $13.35, this translates into $6.00/UrAsia share (CAD7.05/share), a 13% premium to Friday's close. UrAsia's market capitalization was $2.6bn, and Uranium One's was $1.8bn; after the transaction, UrAsia shareholders will own approximately 60% of the combined entity.
UrAsia has scheduled an EGM for May 15, 2007 for shareholders to consider the transaction, with the results and related information to be distributed in mid-April. If the transaction does not go through, UrAsia is to pay Uranium One a break-up fee of $90mn.
The new company (also called Uranium One) would be one of the world's largest uranium companies by market capitalization. Only Areva and Cameco would be larger, but both companies are involved in activities other than uranium mining (e.g. electricity production).
Consolidation in uranium industry leaves fewer players for investors to choose from
Source: Bloomberg; Aton estimates
We estimate the combined Uranium One would have attributable production of 7mn lbs of U3O8 from five operations in 2008F, at normalized cash costs of $10/lb-$12/lb, compared to the a spot price of $75/lb. The combined company would also have P&P reserves total of 49mn lbs of U3O8 and resources of 371mn lbs of U3O8. It should also have a strong balance sheet, with a pro forma cash balance of approximately $389mn.
We view the news as very positive for UrAsia, and note that there would be even fewer public producers of uranium for investors to choose from if the transaction succeeds.
We have no formal recommendation on UrAsia.
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