Media rights. Once again, the German Football League (DFL) managed to surpass the billion-euro per season mark for awarding the German-language media rights for the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2. With total revenues of € 4.5bn, it even surpassed the previous award (+2%), which should be seen as a major success, given the results the French league recently achieved. Assuming no change in the distribution model, BVB should hence expect slightly increased sales in national TV marketing over the upcoming cycle (2025-2029).
CWC draw. On 5th December, FIFA drew the groups for the Club World Cup in 2025, which will take place in the US. Here, BVB got very lucky, having been drawn in a group with Brazilian side Fluminense, Korea’s Ulsan HD and Mamelodi Sundowns FC from South Africa. To give you some perspective: With the current market values of the respective squads, Fluminense would rank 15th in the Bundesliga, while Ulsan and Mamelodi Sundowns wouldn’t even be in the Top 4 of Bundesliga 2. BVB’s market value is 3.8x of the combined value of the other teams. Hence, anything other than a group win would be a disappointment, in our view. We thus regard BVB’s chances as high to at least advance into the quarterfinals of the tournament. Yet, as FIFA has not provided the public with information regarding the prize money structure, we do not yet include this in our estimates, especially as the tournament takes place during BVB’s fiscal year transition, thus providing upside to our estimates.
Meanwhile, the team continues to perform well in the UCL this season. Despite last night's defeat against Barcelona, BVB is well positioned to achieve a Top 8 spot, which allows for direct qualification for the round of 16. With 12 points in the book and 2 games to go against Bologna and Donetsk, 4 more points (1 win & 1 draw) would be sufficient in 98% of cases to achieve that spot. In our view, this should be absolutely achievable. Mind you, even 15 points, implying one more win, would be enough in 73% of cases.
There’s no place like home. BVB continues to show two faces in the Bundesliga. While the club is leading the home game standings, they are only 16th in the away standings, having scored only 2 points in 6 games thus far. To qualify for next seasons UCL campaign, the team quickly needs to improve performance outside the Signal Iduna Park. Otherwise, our 2025/26e estimates could be at risk.
We hence reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 5.50 PT based on DCF.
